A Data Analysis of Chinese Lotto Industry
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis
Related Research Unit(s)
Based on previous academic research about lottery sales and the development of China’s lottery industry, this study analyzes the state of China’s lottery industry and investigates the factors that influence lottery sales using real data from the years 2008 to 2014. Based on the research’s findings, recommendations and suggestions are provided for the management of the China’s lottery system. This study leads to the following four main conclusions. Firstly, throughout the investigated period from 2008 to 2014, China’s lottery industry and overall lottery sales exhibited strong growth. Based on sales data, the Lotto lottery has been and is still China’s largest lottery. The video lottery and sports lottery are also experiencing rapid growth, whiles the instant lottery’s growth has been exhibiting negative growth since 2011. The sales and per capita sales data vary across provinces. Secondly, the data indicates a significant positive correlation between population, urbanization rate, GDP and total lottery sales, as well as a significant positive correlation between per capita disposable income, the illiteracy rate, self-employment rate and per capital lottery sales. A negative correlation was observed between the percentage of individuals working in private enterprise and Per capital lottery sale. Per capita disposable income and the percentage of the population above 65 years old was also found to significantly and positively influence the ratio of lottery sales to GDP. Thirdly, the influencing factors differ across the different lottery games (instant lottery, lotto, and sports lottery). GDP and per capita GDP both significantly influence the sales of the sports lottery, whereas per capita GDP does not affect the other two games. Lastly, total lottery sales consistently decrease in the month of the Spring Festival, as well as during periods of increased floating population rate. This decrease may be related to the public holiday during the Spring Festival, the population migration and limited sales channels. On the contrary, sports lottery sales increase significantly during the World Cup, and a higher growth is observed in provinces with higher per capita GDP.