Some data mining methods for system health diagnostics and prognostics
基於數據挖掘方法的系統健康診斷與故障預測
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis
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Detail(s)
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Award date | 16 Feb 2015 |
Link(s)
Permanent Link | https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/theses/theses(df5b93ec-3c55-40c5-a515-8c999e278ccd).html |
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Other link(s) | Links |
Abstract
Due to advances in technology, operational data can now be collected automatically
by industries, and organizations are accumulating enormous volumes of data. There
is a growing demand for methods of extracting useful knowledge to assist in strategic
decision making and provide competitive advantages. In particular, the ability to
predict exactly when and how a particular component of a system will break down
not only reduces inspection costs, downtime and spare-parts inventories, but enables
organizations to schedule maintenance dynamically. Recent research on prognostics
and health management (PHM) has emphasized the collection and analysis of online
data to assess and predict the condition of individual components or systems and
thereby improve reliability and safety. On the other hand, recently developed methods
of data modeling, such as data-mining algorithms, have provided a wide spectrum of
alternative techniques for identifying patterns in data.
The aim of this project is to facilitate the use of data-mining methods to predict
the health conditions of components/systems. In this study, a bottom-up approach
to system-health diagnostics and prognostics is taken by first addressing problems at
the component level. Emphasis is placed on the application of statistical data-mining
techniques to sensor-based time series data.
The significance and contributions of the thesis are outlined in the following.
An empirical procedure with a naive Bayes (NB) classifier is shown to provide
robust RUL prediction over time for Li-ion batteries under different operating
conditions. Using Li-ion battery capacity depletion data, the prediction performance
of the NB procedure is shown to be more stable and competitive than
that of an SVM, despite its combined modeling of batteries under different operating
conditions. We used the same procedure to predict the RUL of bearings
with incipient outer race defects.
The study introduces a bearing-diagnostic technique based on one-versus-all
(OVA) class binarization, with a focus on multiple defects that may occur concurrently.
As shown using two bearing-vibration datasets, the OVA technique
has the potential to improve the accuracy of fault diagnosis at the same time
allows concurrent-defect diagnosis from normal and single-defect training data.
The proposed technique is evaluated using an SVM and a C4.5 decision tree, two
popular classification algorithms with widespread application in system-health
diagnostics and prognostics.
A distance-based analytical model of dynamical systems reconstructed through
time-delay embedding is proposed for the detection and comparison of the dynamical
structure of bearings for fault diagnostics. The earth mover's distance
(EMD), a Wasserstein distance metric, is used to compare dynamical systems
reconstructed from bearing-vibration data, with a baseline reconstructed from
normal bearing data. This enables the construction of a severity index over
time. Multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) is used to visualize the EMDs of different
reconstructed dynamical systems in a two-dimensional space for fault-type
assessment. The proposed method is evaluated using simulated and laboratory
data on bearings.
In this thesis, three data-driven methods are proposed for solving two kinds of
problems. The first method entailed the use of capacity-degradation data to predict
the RUL of a Li-ion battery. The second and third methods involved the use of vibration
data to diagnose bearing defects after incipient faults. In the latter problem,
both the diagnostic results at a specific time of operation and the trend of degradation
were considered. Common mechanical (bearings) and electrical (batteries)
components were studied. Both simulated data and laboratory experimental data
were used to demonstrate the proposed methods.
- Engineering systems, Testing, Systems engineering, Data mining