Network-based data-driven approaches to the analysis of international trade and finance
基於網絡和數據驅動的國際貿易金融分析
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis
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Detail(s)
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Award date | 15 Jul 2014 |
Link(s)
Permanent Link | https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/theses/theses(94ed538f-00bd-46fb-a44d-3092a28218da).html |
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Other link(s) | Links |
Abstract
The broad content in the study of complex networks has attracted increasing interest from
various scientific communities over the past decade. Its major appealing features lie in the
ubiquity of networks in nature and human society, as well as their uniform mathematical
description within the unified framework of graph theory.
Under such a wider framework, this dissertation focuses on the application of concepts and
techniques from network science to problems in international trade and finance, which can
broadly be associated with macroeconomics. A main idea is the interpretation of a datadriven
approach to networked structures as an extension of the classic statistical analysis,
which allows for a self-contained and consistent treatment of higher-order interactions
within a complex system.
Three major accomplishments will be presented. In the first part, the framework of composite
centrality will be introduced, dedicating to the problem of heterogeneities in complex
datasets, which is a general phenomenon when investigating real-world networks. A
measure standardisation recipe is given, which transforms a unimodal distribution to an
approximative standard normal distribution. This can be seen as an ideal starting point
for further analyses. The composite centrality framework is not bound to the analysis
of complex networks, but offers a general approach to the investigation of multi-variate
statistics.
In the second part, the analysis of a pair of cross-border portfolio investment networks is
studied, covering a time period of the recent global financial crisis 2007-2009. It will be
shown that the network characteristics of these large-scale macroeconomic structures can
be used to describe aggregated properties of the global financial system. Particularly, an
early-warning mechanism is developed for predicting future financial crises, which couples
the output of a simple phenomenological model with a macroeconomic reference variable
to indirectly measure the interdependence of financial markets, caused through the proliferation
of over-the-counter traded financial derivative products.
The third part introduces a novel way for the generation of complex networks from data in
the form of a generic linear network model. The underlying idea is that related indicators
within a dataset should be able to mutually describe each other. An iterative algorithm is
designed for constructing a multiple linear regression fit network model from the available
data, which is interpreted as a hybrid object, allowing for the application of basic concepts
from statistical analysis, such as description and forecast, and from network science, like the analysis of the organisational structure of a given dataset.
In summary, the main contributions of this Thesis include:
1. The development of a novel framework for multi-variate statistical data analyses.
2. The design and implementations of several network-based data mining approaches.
3. The investigation of cross-border portfolio investment networks and the identification
of early-warning indicators for financial crises.
4. The development of a novel methodology for the generation of relational networks
from data.
5. A consistent investigation of heterogeneous multi-layered networks in international
trade and finance.
- International finance, International trade, Data processing