Habits and uncovered interest rate parity puzzle : theory and estimation
習慣與非拋利率平價之迷 : 理論與實證
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis
Author(s)
Related Research Unit(s)
Detail(s)
Awarding Institution | |
---|---|
Supervisors/Advisors |
|
Award date | 3 Oct 2014 |
Link(s)
Permanent Link | https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/theses/theses(83d0c087-33e9-4f87-8b50-af257a08e137).html |
---|---|
Other link(s) | Links |
Abstract
This thesis work studies a robust empirical regularity in currency exchange market, known
as Uncovered Interest Rate Parity ( UIP ) Puzzle, that currencies with higher interest rate
tends to appreciate in the short run. This thesis presents a multi-agent, multi-good general
equilibrium model to explain the puzzle, inspired by external habit formation model
of Campbell and Cochrane (1999). The model has four features, (i) the model delivers
stochastic risk premiums, (ii) the external habit in the model is defined over goods rather
than countries, (iii) the effect of external habit on different agents is asymmetric, (iv) the
model has closed form solutions. The first feature is inherited from the standard habit
formation models, and is one key ingredient of resolving the UIP puzzle as pointed out by
Fama (1984). The second feature is different from the standard external habit formation
models, which usually define external habit on country level. The good level external
habits act as global risk factors that drive the dynamics of the pricing kernels in different
countries. The third feature is generated by assigning different habit preference parameters
to different countries. Asymmetric loading is claimed by Backus, etc. (2001) to be
a crucial feature for affine term structure models to explain UIP puzzle. Combined with
the second feature, this setting can also account for the puzzle raised by Engel(2012) and
claimed to be difficult to explain with existing models, that is the long-run currency move ments are exactly the opposite relative to the short-run movements. With the forth feature
of the model, one can conduct rigours econometric estimation in addition to calibration,
which is a common exercise in habit formation literature. With consumption, yield curve,
price level and exchange rate data for U.S., J.P. and U.K., the model is estimated using
Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The estimated model delivers a close fit of the term
structures of interest rate for three countries, UIP puzzle and upward sloping real yield
curves simultaneously. With the estimated parameters, the Engel's puzzle can be matched
locally.
- Interest rates, Inflation (Finance), Econometric models