Financial market integration in arbitrage networks
基於套利網絡的金融市場融合
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis
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Detail(s)
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Award date | 15 Jul 2014 |
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Permanent Link | https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/theses/theses(e8439467-6708-4171-8138-e43ab11e078a).html |
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Other link(s) | Links |
Abstract
In this thesis, the phenomenon of financial market integration is studied both empirically
and theoretically. The empirical study confirms the trend of market integration,
while the theoretical study provides significant financial implications on market integration.
Firstly, a time series representing the developed financial markets' segmentation from
1973-2012 is studied. The time series reveals an obvious market integration trend. To
further uncover features of this time series, we divide it into seven windows and generate
seven visibility graphs. The measuring capabilities of visibility graphs provide a means
to quantitatively analyze the original time series. It is found that important historical incidents
that influence market integration coincide with variations in the measured graphical
node degree. Through the measure of neighborhood span, the frequencies of historical incidents
are disclosed. Moreover, it is also found that large "cycles" and significant noise
in the time series are linked to large and small communities in the generated visibility
graphs. For large cycles, how significantly historical incidents affected market integration
is distinguished by the density and compactness of the corresponding communities.
Secondly, a novel model of sequential arbitrage networks is developed to theoretically
investigate the process of financial market integration. At every trade moment, an
arbitrage network is built by considering exchanges as nodes and arbitrageurs' trades as
edges. Taking each exchange's asset pricing as the state of a node and regarding price
convergence as a sign of financial market integration, the state movement and the market
integration are studied through a number of sequential trade moments. Two types of arbitrage
networks are considered: one-trade mode and multi-trade mode. For the sequential
one-trade arbitrage network, the connectivity of the network is further studied. The results support the Law of One Price hypothesis and are consistent with the trend that financial
markets all over the world become more and more tightly connected with the deepening of
financial globalization. For the sequential multi-trade arbitrage network, some sufficient
conditions for the integration and low bounds for the speed of the integration are given.
The results indicate that the financial market integration would be achieved as long as the
arbitrageurs liquidate assets across all segmented markets constantly and the arbitrageurs'
desire for profits has positive effects on the integration.
Finally, profit distributions of the one-trade mode and the multi-trade mode in arbitrage
networks are studied. It turns out that both investors in traded exchanges and
arbitrageurs benefit from the trades. Moreover, the multi-trade mode brings competition
among arbitrageurs and asset liquidity among exchanges, both of which make the profit
distribution between the investors and the arbitrageurs differ from that of the one-trade
mode. The competition helps the investors take a larger share of the total profit, while
the asset liquidity works in an opposite way. How strong their influences are relies on the
arbitrageurs' selections of the traded exchanges.
In brief, this thesis complements the existing literatures of market integration and also
provides meaningful insights for all investors and policy makers. Also, the model of
arbitrage networks could be used to predict how market integration would be affected by
financial market regulations and rules and how investors and arbitrageurs would benefit
from market integration. In addition, we bring concepts from graph theory and switched
systems as new perspectives for analyzing arbitrage networks.
- International finance, Econometric models, Arbitrage, International economic integration