An analysis of global solar radiation modelling in different climate zones in China
中國不同氣候區太陽輻射模型之分析
Student thesis: Master's Thesis
Author(s)
Detail(s)
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Award date | 15 Jul 2008 |
Link(s)
Permanent Link | https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/theses/theses(2b8ec859-7f48-47dd-a18d-3227ee2ad223).html |
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Other link(s) | Links |
Abstract
Solar radiation plays an important role in the design and analysis of energyefficient
buildings in different climates. Solar availability in China is excellent with
more than two thirds of the areas having 2200 hours of sunshine and the annual solar
radiation in excess of 5860 MJ/m2. In China, there are cities/regions that do not have
measured solar radiation data. The primary aim of this study is to model global solar
radiation (GSR) in different climate zones in China using 2 methods – regression
analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs), evaluate their performance and
investigate the impact of using modelled GSR on building energy simulations.
Correlation between clearness index and sunshine duration is useful in the
estimation of solar radiation. Regressions and ANNs were employed to predict the
daily global solar radiation in China. Measurements made during the 30-year period
(1971 to 2000) from 41 measuring stations covering 9 thermal and 7 solar climate
zones across China were gathered and analysed. Two-parameter Angstrom-Prescott
linear regression equation was used to investigate the correlations between daily
global solar radiation and sunshine duration. Three sets of models were considered -
individual city models, thermal climate zone models and solar climate zone models.
ANNs were also employed to generate prediction models for daily GSR using 6 input
variables – day-number, latitude, longitude, altitude, dry-bulb temperature and
sunshine duration. The performance of the regression and the ANN models was
compared and analysed. The coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe
efficiency coefficient (NSEC), mean bias error (MBE) and root-mean-square error
(RMSE) were determined. Regression models showed a strong correlation between
the clearness index and sunshine duration in both thermal and solar climate zones (R2 = 0.79-0.88). Both the ANN and the regression models had similar NSEC (0.8-0.95),
revealing a reasonably good predictive power. An increasing trend of larger MBE and
RMSE from colder climates in the north to warmer climates in the south was observed.
To investigate the impact of using modelled GSR on heating and cooling loads,
building energy simulations were conducted for 9 cities (Harbin 45o45'N, Hami
42o49'N, Dunhuang 40o09'N, Minqin 38o38'N, Lanzhou 36o03'N, Yushu 33o01'N,
Yichang 30o42'N, Lijiang 26o52'N and Hong Kong 22o18'N) in the 9 thermal climate
zones with the simulation tool VisualDOE 4.1. Two weather files in DOE-2 weather
file format were developed for each city, one with the measured GSR and the other
predicted data from the regression thermal zone models. Weather data measured in
year 2000 were used in the simulation exercise. A generic office building was
developed for each city based on the local energy codes and the prevailing
architectural and building construction engineering practices. Two simulations per city
were carried out, with the 2 weather files developed. Annual building cooling loads
(using measured GSR) ranged from 5499 MWh in Harbin to 9357 MWh in Hong
Kong and heating loads ranged from 221 MWh in Hong Kong to 1794 MWh in
Harbin. The MBE between the cooling loads using measured and predicted GSR
ranged from -2.3% in Lijiang to 1.5% in Harbin, and the heating loads from -6.2% in
Lanzhou to 1.8% in Lijiang. These suggested that the difference (i.e. modelled against
measured GSR) in the computed cooling loads ranged between 2.3% underestimation
and 1.5% overestimation, and heating loads between 6.2% underestimation and 1.8%
overestimation. These findings could give architects and building engineers an idea
about the likely variations in computed heating and cooling loads.
- Solar radiation, China