Activity-based modeling of travel demand in suburban area

建模於活動基礎的郊區客運需求研究

Student thesis: Master's Thesis

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Author(s)

  • Mei Yee LI

Related Research Unit(s)

Detail(s)

Awarding Institution
Supervisors/Advisors
  • Hing Po LO (Supervisor)
Award date15 Feb 2006

Abstract

An efficient urban transportation system has long been one of the key factors that lead to a successful economy. An accurate travel demand prediction is one of the important elements in planning and evaluating different transportation strategies. Traditional travel demand analyses focus on studying the effect of travel time, cost and number of transfers on individuals' travel behavior. However, with the increasing concern about the quality of life, it is believed that passengers' perceived satisfaction towards the service quality of different transportation modes should have important impact on their mode choice decision. Hence, the first part of this study aims to develop a travel demand model with the additional use of passengers' perceived satisfaction towards different transportation modes. A survey is carried out to collect necessary information for model demonstration for two suburban areas in Hong Kong. It examines the impact of the newly introduced railway, the West Rail, on Tuen Mun and Yuen Long residents' travel behavior. Structural equation modeling is first carried out to measure and estimate the interrelationship between reliability, comfort and safety level on passengers' overall satisfaction. The estimated effect of passengers' perceived satisfaction is then incorporated into the utility function of a logit model. Results presented in this part show that the explanatory power of the model is significantly improved by incorporating passengers' satisfaction into the logit model. This implies that passengers' perceptions towards different service qualities have significant effect on their mode choice decision. In addition to the integration of passengers' perceived satisfaction into the mode choice model, it is believed that an individual's travel pattern is the result of an underlying activity scheduling decision process. Travel demand, therefore, is a derived demand from the needs of performing certain activities. As a step further, the second part of this dissertation studies the interrelationship between social demographics, urban form, activity choice and transportation infrastructure on individuals' travel behavior. Firstly, a generalized logit model is developed to examine the effect of personal and household demographics on individuals' choice of activity-type during weekends. Secondly, a nested logit model is presented to identify the interrelation between urban form, activity-related characteristics and transportation infrastructure on individuals' travel behavior. Finally, the social demographics, urban form, activity choice and travel behavior are integrated to predict the proportion of individuals participating in a particular activity at a specific location accessed by a certain transportation mode. An empirical implementation of the proposed methodology to study the Tuen Mun and Yuen Long residents' travel behavior after the introduction of West Rail is performed by conducting a second survey and the use of the 1% Population Census 2001 data and the Travel Characteristics Survey 2002 data. The empirical results match with the preliminary expectations that (1) social demographic variables have significant effect on individuals' choice of activity-type and (2) urban form, activity-related characteristics and transportation infrastructure significantly determine an individual's travel pattern during weekends. These results represent a significant change to the models that only focus on the effect of travel time, cost and number of transfers in predicting travel demand. This dissertation concludes with a discussion on modeling implications and future directions for transportation and urban planners in developing different transportation strategies.

    Research areas

  • China, Choice of transportation, Tuen Mun (Hong Kong, China), Yuen Long (Hong Kong, China), Hong Kong