併購中“名人效應”、持續盈利能力與商譽研究 - 基於中國上市公司數據
Celebrity Effect, Sustained Profitability and Goodwill in M&A - Based on Chinese Listed Companies
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis
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Award date | 15 Jul 2020 |
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Permanent Link | https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/theses/theses(51a9740f-efaf-4fa8-a83a-1c3ddcb1d055).html |
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Abstract
中文摘要並購後的持續盈利能力是判斷並購成功與否的最直接和核心的標準。商譽是並購時,購買方對標的公司持續盈利能力超額預期的體現;這種超額預期的落空,則在並購後表現為商譽減值。作為當前熱點問題的商譽減值,受到國內外學界和業界的密切關注。習近平(2017)在黨的十九大報告明確提出要“守住不發生系統性金融風險的底線”。2018年末,我國資本市場商譽帳面已經累積到3.1萬億,這萬億商譽的歸宿無外乎減值。2019年開始,我國經濟開始放緩調整,2020年初全球開始遭遇疫情,一方面,外部經濟環境會帶來公司盈利能力下降等商譽減值的客觀現實,另一方面,放緩的經濟環境又會誘發上市公司出於“洗大澡”動機的商譽減值主觀調節,從而造成市場上的巨額商譽減值風險。事實上,截止目前來看,已有多家上市公司“業績變臉”、“爆雷”進行了大額商譽減值。因此,商譽減值問題亟待研究和解決。
商譽急劇積累的原因有二,一為“新國九條”政策下並購潮帶來的商譽增量;一為“只減值、不攤銷”會計準則下商譽存量的“消耗”困難。就其增量來看,商譽並非是並購的必然結果。另外,在這幾年的並購潮中,各領域名稱人頻繁出現在並購活動中。基於此現象的觀察和對商譽問題的思考,本人決定對並購中“名人效應”、持續盈利能力與商譽問題進行研究。
本文主要從並購活動中的名人參與現象出發,通過引入消費品市場“名人效應”理論,重新拓展和界定了“名人”定義。從並購活動中買方、賣方、乃至標的方等不同利益方名人效應的新視角,來研究名人對並購商譽的產生和後續減值的影響;本文還進一步研究了作為名人效應與商譽產生和減值作用路徑的持續盈利能力,其預期和現實差,如何受到不同利益方名人的影響,呈現出不同或相同的結果;本文重點探討了名人參與並購的動機、對並購對價的作用機制、以及對超額商譽的影響路徑。
通過理論推導、建立模型和實證檢驗,本文主要發現:並購中的名人效應能通過傳遞持續盈利能力的正面資訊從而提升並購商譽,並購時投資者對購買方名人參與持負面預期、對賣方和標的方的名人參與持正面預期,但這部分資產並購後持續盈利能力總體表現不佳,更容易發生商譽減值。
可見,名人效應在資本市場能夠通過信號傳遞、改變資訊不對稱程度產生一系列經濟後果。本文的研究結論對投資實務界、監管方有一定的借鑒意義,也拓寬了相關領域的研究視角和豐富了有關研究成果。
商譽急劇積累的原因有二,一為“新國九條”政策下並購潮帶來的商譽增量;一為“只減值、不攤銷”會計準則下商譽存量的“消耗”困難。就其增量來看,商譽並非是並購的必然結果。另外,在這幾年的並購潮中,各領域名稱人頻繁出現在並購活動中。基於此現象的觀察和對商譽問題的思考,本人決定對並購中“名人效應”、持續盈利能力與商譽問題進行研究。
本文主要從並購活動中的名人參與現象出發,通過引入消費品市場“名人效應”理論,重新拓展和界定了“名人”定義。從並購活動中買方、賣方、乃至標的方等不同利益方名人效應的新視角,來研究名人對並購商譽的產生和後續減值的影響;本文還進一步研究了作為名人效應與商譽產生和減值作用路徑的持續盈利能力,其預期和現實差,如何受到不同利益方名人的影響,呈現出不同或相同的結果;本文重點探討了名人參與並購的動機、對並購對價的作用機制、以及對超額商譽的影響路徑。
通過理論推導、建立模型和實證檢驗,本文主要發現:並購中的名人效應能通過傳遞持續盈利能力的正面資訊從而提升並購商譽,並購時投資者對購買方名人參與持負面預期、對賣方和標的方的名人參與持正面預期,但這部分資產並購後持續盈利能力總體表現不佳,更容易發生商譽減值。
可見,名人效應在資本市場能夠通過信號傳遞、改變資訊不對稱程度產生一系列經濟後果。本文的研究結論對投資實務界、監管方有一定的借鑒意義,也拓寬了相關領域的研究視角和豐富了有關研究成果。
The sustainable profitability of related assets after M&A is the most direct and core standard to judge the success of M&A. Goodwill is the expression of the acquirer's excess expectation of the target company's sustainable profitability in the process of M&A. If such excess expectation fails, it will be shown as goodwill impairment in accounting after M&A. As a hot issue at present, goodwill impairment has been paid close attention by the academia and practice circles in the domestic and abroad. Xi Jinping (2017) made clear in the Party's Nineteen Report that we should "keep the bottom line of systemic financial risks". At the end of 2018, the book value of goodwill in China's capital market has accumulated to 3.1 trillion, which is doomed to be impaired. China's economy began to slow down and adjust from 2019, and the world began to encounter epidemic situation, at the beginning of 2020. On the one hand, the reality such as the decline of the company's profitability of goodwill impairment is prone to occur in that external economic environment. On the other hand, the slowing economic environment will induce the listed companies' subjective adjustment of goodwill impairment for the purpose of earnings management such as "taking a big bath", all of this will result in huge goodwill impairment risk in the market. In fact, there have been lots of phenomenon in many listed companies to carry out a large amount of goodwill impairment. Therefore, the problem of goodwill impairment needs to be studied and solved.
There are two reasons for the rapid accumulation of goodwill: one is the increase of goodwill brought by the tide of M&A under the encouraging policy of "New Nine National Policies", The other is the "expending" difficulty of goodwill stock under the current accounting standards of "only impairment, no amortization". The increment of goodwill is not the inevitable result of M&A. In addition, celebrities of various fields frequently appear in the M&A activities in recent years. All of those causes my attention and interest. Based on the observation of the phenomenon of celebrities and on the consideration of goodwill, I decided to research the "celebrity effect", sustainable profitability and goodwill in M&A.
Starting from the phenomenon of celebrities’ participation in M&A activities, this paper introduces the theory of "celebrity effect" in consumer goods market and redefines the definition of "celebrity". From the new perspectives of celebrity effect of different stakeholders such as the buyer, the seller, and even the target in the M&A activities, this paper researches on the influences of celebrities on the generation and the subsequent impairment of M&A goodwill. In addition, this paper further studies the sustained profitability as the path by which the celebrity effect could influence the generation and impairment of the goodwill, and how the difference between expectation and reality of the sustained profitability to be influenced by celebrities of different stakeholders. This paper focuses on the motivation of celebrities to participate in M&A, the mechanism of their consideration M&A, and the path of their influence on excess goodwill.
Through theoretical derivation, model establishment and empirical test, this paper mainly finds that the celebrity effect in M&A can enhance the goodwill by transmitting the positive information of sustainable profitability. During M&A, investors hold negative expectation for the buyer's celebrity participation and positive expectation for the seller's and target's celebrity participation, but the performance of sustainable profitability after M&A of these assets is poor, which are more likely to cause goodwill impairment.
n brief, celebrity effect can lead to a series of economic consequences in the capital market through signal transmission and changing the degree of information asymmetry. The conclusion of this paper can be used as reference for the practice of investment and regulators, broaden the perspective of resent research and enrich the literature of relevant research.
There are two reasons for the rapid accumulation of goodwill: one is the increase of goodwill brought by the tide of M&A under the encouraging policy of "New Nine National Policies", The other is the "expending" difficulty of goodwill stock under the current accounting standards of "only impairment, no amortization". The increment of goodwill is not the inevitable result of M&A. In addition, celebrities of various fields frequently appear in the M&A activities in recent years. All of those causes my attention and interest. Based on the observation of the phenomenon of celebrities and on the consideration of goodwill, I decided to research the "celebrity effect", sustainable profitability and goodwill in M&A.
Starting from the phenomenon of celebrities’ participation in M&A activities, this paper introduces the theory of "celebrity effect" in consumer goods market and redefines the definition of "celebrity". From the new perspectives of celebrity effect of different stakeholders such as the buyer, the seller, and even the target in the M&A activities, this paper researches on the influences of celebrities on the generation and the subsequent impairment of M&A goodwill. In addition, this paper further studies the sustained profitability as the path by which the celebrity effect could influence the generation and impairment of the goodwill, and how the difference between expectation and reality of the sustained profitability to be influenced by celebrities of different stakeholders. This paper focuses on the motivation of celebrities to participate in M&A, the mechanism of their consideration M&A, and the path of their influence on excess goodwill.
Through theoretical derivation, model establishment and empirical test, this paper mainly finds that the celebrity effect in M&A can enhance the goodwill by transmitting the positive information of sustainable profitability. During M&A, investors hold negative expectation for the buyer's celebrity participation and positive expectation for the seller's and target's celebrity participation, but the performance of sustainable profitability after M&A of these assets is poor, which are more likely to cause goodwill impairment.
n brief, celebrity effect can lead to a series of economic consequences in the capital market through signal transmission and changing the degree of information asymmetry. The conclusion of this paper can be used as reference for the practice of investment and regulators, broaden the perspective of resent research and enrich the literature of relevant research.
- Celebrity effect, M&A, Sustained profitability, Goodwill, Goodwill impairment, Earnings management