The Paradox of Myanmar's Regime Transition: Regime Change for Regime Maintenance

Abstract

For nearly half a century, Myanmar’s military has defied both exogenous and endogenous challenges to its rule, and was considered one of the most durable authoritarian regimes in the 21st century. Since 2011, Myanmar has initiated a regime transformation from above that has challenged conventional explanations of regime change. Under the new constitutional arrangement, power is no longer monopolized by the military, although the 2008 Constitution maintains plenty of authoritarian enclaves that ensure a permanent role for the military in politics and government. By examining the historical evolution of Myanmar’s military regime, this thesis argues that there is more continuity than change in Myanmar’s regime transition. The roots of Myanmar’s post-2011 regime change are traceable to the collapse of the discredited Burmese Socialist Program Party (BSPP) government in 1988. When the military returned to direct rule, it had justified its government as provisional with a broad outline promising eventual transfer of power to a multiparty political system. Through trial and error, the military was able to eliminate conditions it deemed unfavorable to the adoption of its version of a disciplined multiparty democracy articulated in 2003. Despite the new openings and the 2015 elections, there is no clear indication that suggests the recent reforms are anything but a closely controlled transition plan that continues to safeguard the interests of the pro-military establishment. This thesis draws on qualitative interviews with multiple stakeholders involved with the reforms, including government advisors, diplomats, civil society actors, as well as consultants, academics, and businesspeople. Combined with a systematic overview of the literature addressing Myanmar’s regime transition, this thesis contributes to the growing literature examining regime change more broadly by presenting a theoretical framework of trial and error model of regime transition, as well as more specifically to the nascent literature on contemporary Myanmar.

Date of Award	8 Jun 2016
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	City University of Hong Kong
Supervisor	Jonathan Daniel LONDON (Supervisor), Mark Richard THOMPSON (Supervisor), Yin Hlaing KYAW (Supervisor) & Paul Anthony CAMMACK (Supervisor)