Wither China's democracy? In commemoration of the twentieth anniversary of the Tiananmen incident

The pursuit of democracy in China in the foreseeable future will still be a severe challenge. It is difficult to anticipate top-down political reforms initiated by the governing political elite or a pro-democracy movement launched by the people at the grassroots level. Impressive economic growth has raised the living standards of the vast majority of the people; more important still, they remain optimistic regarding the prospects of future improvements in their quality of life. Hence Chinese leaders’ attitude of “stability takes precedence over everything else” and their strive to maintain an annual economic growth rate of 8% are in conformity with the people’s orientation to avoid changes. Basically the status quo today is acceptable, and people are reluctant to risk it to fight for political reforms. The basic strategy of the Chinese leadership to maintain the Party’s monopoly of political power includes promoting economic growth, building a social security net for the underprivileged groups, and absorbing the elites of various sectors into the vested-interest strata. Chinese leaders are eager to pursue good governance if the measures concerned do not adversely affect the leadership of the Party. The success of the Chinese leadership’s strategies is, to a considerable extent, a result of the lessons drawn from the Tiananmen Incident as well as the subsequent dramatic changes in Eastern Europe and the break-up of the Soviet Union. Today the “Beijing consensus” has been able to compete effectively with the “Washington consensus” in many Third World countries, demonstrating the attraction of China’s development model. But the ultimate question remains: can a power elite maintain its monopoly of political power on a long-term basis by relying on economic growth, social security and the absorption of the intelligentsia?