Who won political elections in Hong Kong over time?

Addressing the question about who won in political elections in Hong Kong can reveal its trajectory of democratic development. Because a democracy requires fair representation in elected members, whose performance and ideological orientation can appeal to rational and ideologically sophisticated citizens, incumbents and partisans tend to be more successful in winning the democratic election. To examine this instance of democratic development, the study compiles a dataset including all candidates (3,811 cases) contesting for elections from 1982 to 2000. It finds the general trend that incumbents and partisans of some major parties were more likely to win the contests. Furthermore, it estimates the relative chance separately for 17 elections during the period and examines the influence of time. As a result, it detects that the favorable effects of incumbency and party affiliation tended to increase with time. These findings imply the steady democratic development in Hong Kong. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.