What Drives Policy Compliance? The Protection-Motivated Mediating Model of Institutional Trust, Risk Paradox, and Zero Covid Policy

This study draws on protection motivation theory (PMT) to examine how institutional trust, risk perception, and self-efficacy have influenced public attitudes toward Zero Covid policy in three Chinese societies. Based on a sample of 4,812 respondents in Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, we found that institutional trust is the predominant factor predicting public policy compliance. Additionally, we developed a Protection-Motivated Mediating Model to investigate two appraisal paths (i.e., risk perception as threat appraisal and self-efficacy as coping appraisal) between institutional trust and policy attitudes. The model demonstrated the paradoxical effect of two types of risk perception (i.e., hazard and outrage) on policy attitudes. Overall, the study validated PMT and provided empirical support for the risk paradox phenomenon. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.