Vertical land motion is underestimated in sea-level projections from the Oka estuary, northern Spain

Coastal populations are susceptible to relative sea-level (RSL) rise and accurate local projections are necessary for coastal adaptation. Local RSL rise may deviate from global mean sea-level rise because of processes such as geoid change, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and vertical land motion (VLM). Amongst all factors, the VLM is often inadequately estimated. Here, we estimated the VLM for the Oka estuary, northern Spain and compared it to the VLM component of sea-level projections in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and the Spanish National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (NCCAP). To estimate VLM, we updated Holocene RSL data from the Atlantic coast of Europe and compared it with two 3D GIA models. Both models fit well with RSL data except in the Oka estuary. We derived a VLM rate of − 0.88 ± 0.03 mm/yr for the Oka estuary using the residuals of GIA misfits. Comparable VLM rates of − 0.85 ± 0.14 mm/yr and − 0.80 ± 0.32 mm/yr are estimated based on a nearby Global Navigation Satellite Systems station and differenced altimetry-tide gauge technique, respectively. Incorporating the updated late Holocene estimate of VLM in IPCC AR6 RSL projections under a moderate emissions scenario increased the rate of RSL rise by 15% by 2030, 11% by 2050, and 9% by 2150 compared to the original IPCC AR6 projections, and also increased the magnitude of RSL rise by over 40% by 2035 and 2090 compared with projections from the Spanish NCCAP. Our study demonstrates the importance of accurate VLM estimates for local sea-level projections. © The Author(s) 2024.