Unusual role of positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the record-low tropical cyclone genesis over the Western North Pacific in 2023

Xi Luo; Lei Zhang; Johnny C. L. Chan; Weiqing Han; Xin Wang; Dongxiao Wang; Wen Xing; Yanying Chen

doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01206-6

Unusual role of positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the record-low tropical cyclone genesis over the Western North Pacific in 2023

Xi Luo
, Lei Zhang^*
, Johnny C. L. Chan
, Weiqing Han
, Xin Wang
, Dongxiao Wang
, Wen Xing
, Yanying Chen

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Energy and Environment

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

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Abstract

The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) dropped to a record low in 2023, with less than 40% forming during the boreal autumn. While a strong El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD), and strong tropical North Atlantic warming coexisted, their relative contributions to the suppressed TC genesis remain unclear. Through observational analyses and model experiments, we demonstrate that the tropical Atlantic and Pacific exerted minimal influence on TC genesis over the WNP. In contrast, the pIOD played a dominant role in suppressing TC activities over the central WNP, where the decline was most pronounced. Specifically, the pIOD induced easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, leading to descending anomalies over the WNP that inhibited TC genesis. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating the IOD into future seasonal TC forecasts to improve its prediction skill. © The Author(s) 2025.

Original language	English
Article number	322
Number of pages	8
Journal	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume	8
Online published	2 Sept 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01206-6
Publication status	Published - 2025

Funding

This work is suppported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42376021), the National Key R&D Program of China: Young Scientist Program (2023YFC3108800), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (W2441014), the GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2024B1515040024), the Development fund (SCSIO202203) and Special fund (SCSIO2023QY01) of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The numerical simulations are supported by the High-Performance Computing Division in the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology.

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title = "Unusual role of positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the record-low tropical cyclone genesis over the Western North Pacific in 2023",

abstract = "The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) dropped to a record low in 2023, with less than 40\% forming during the boreal autumn. While a strong El Ni{\~n}o, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD), and strong tropical North Atlantic warming coexisted, their relative contributions to the suppressed TC genesis remain unclear. Through observational analyses and model experiments, we demonstrate that the tropical Atlantic and Pacific exerted minimal influence on TC genesis over the WNP. In contrast, the pIOD played a dominant role in suppressing TC activities over the central WNP, where the decline was most pronounced. Specifically, the pIOD induced easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, leading to descending anomalies over the WNP that inhibited TC genesis. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating the IOD into future seasonal TC forecasts to improve its prediction skill. {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

author = "Xi Luo and Lei Zhang and Chan, \{Johnny C. L.\} and Weiqing Han and Xin Wang and Dongxiao Wang and Wen Xing and Yanying Chen",

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journal = "npj Climate and Atmospheric Science",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Unusual role of positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the record-low tropical cyclone genesis over the Western North Pacific in 2023

AU - Luo, Xi

AU - Zhang, Lei

AU - Chan, Johnny C. L.

AU - Han, Weiqing

AU - Wang, Xin

AU - Wang, Dongxiao

AU - Xing, Wen

AU - Chen, Yanying

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) dropped to a record low in 2023, with less than 40% forming during the boreal autumn. While a strong El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD), and strong tropical North Atlantic warming coexisted, their relative contributions to the suppressed TC genesis remain unclear. Through observational analyses and model experiments, we demonstrate that the tropical Atlantic and Pacific exerted minimal influence on TC genesis over the WNP. In contrast, the pIOD played a dominant role in suppressing TC activities over the central WNP, where the decline was most pronounced. Specifically, the pIOD induced easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, leading to descending anomalies over the WNP that inhibited TC genesis. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating the IOD into future seasonal TC forecasts to improve its prediction skill. © The Author(s) 2025.

AB - The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) dropped to a record low in 2023, with less than 40% forming during the boreal autumn. While a strong El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD), and strong tropical North Atlantic warming coexisted, their relative contributions to the suppressed TC genesis remain unclear. Through observational analyses and model experiments, we demonstrate that the tropical Atlantic and Pacific exerted minimal influence on TC genesis over the WNP. In contrast, the pIOD played a dominant role in suppressing TC activities over the central WNP, where the decline was most pronounced. Specifically, the pIOD induced easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, leading to descending anomalies over the WNP that inhibited TC genesis. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating the IOD into future seasonal TC forecasts to improve its prediction skill. © The Author(s) 2025.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105014940363

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/pubmetrics.uri?eid=2-s2.0-105014940363&origin=recordpage

U2 - 10.1038/s41612-025-01206-6

DO - 10.1038/s41612-025-01206-6

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 2397-3722

VL - 8

JO - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

JF - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

M1 - 322

ER -

Unusual role of positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the record-low tropical cyclone genesis over the Western North Pacific in 2023

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