Uncertainties of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model Predictions in North America Associated With 3D Structure

Tanghua Li; Patrick Wu; Hansheng Wang; Holger Steffen; Nicole S. Khan; Simon E. Engelhart; Matteo Vacchi; Timothy A. Shaw; W. Richard Peltier; Benjamin P. Horton

doi:10.1029/2020GL087944

Uncertainties of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model Predictions in North America Associated With 3D Structure

Tanghua Li^*
, Patrick Wu
, Hansheng Wang
, Holger Steffen
, Nicole S. Khan
, Simon E. Engelhart
, Matteo Vacchi
, Timothy A. Shaw
, W. Richard Peltier
, Benjamin P. Horton

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

54 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

We quantify GIA prediction uncertainties of 250 1D and 3D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models through comparisons with deglacial relative sea-level (RSL) data from North America and rate of vertical land motion (U̇) and gravity rate of change (Ġ) from GNSS and GRACE data, respectively. Spatially, the size of the RSL uncertainties varies across North America with the largest from Hudson Bay and near previous ice margins along the northern Atlantic and Pacific coasts, which suggests 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle and laterally varying lithospheric thickness. Temporally, RSL uncertainties decrease from the Last Glacial Maximum to present except for west of Hudson Bay and the northeastern Pacific coast. The uncertainties of both these regions increase from 30 to 45 m between 15 and 11 ka BP, which may be due to the rapid decrease of surface loading at that time. Present-day U̇ and Ġ uncertainties are largest in southwestern Hudson Bay with magnitudes of 2.4 mm/year and 0.4 μGal/year, mainly due to the 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle. © 2020. The Authors.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020GL087944
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	47
Issue number	10
Online published	17 Apr 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087944
Publication status	Published - 28 May 2020
Externally published	Yes

Funding

We thank Donald Argus and an anonymous reviewer for their very constructive comments, which have helped to improve the manuscript. Patrick Wu received GRF grant 17315316 from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council. Tanghua Li and Benjamin P. Horton are supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004 and MOE2018-T2-1-030, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative. Hansheng Wang is funded by the National Key R & D Program of China (2017YFA0603103) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (41431070 and 41974009). The research of W.R. Peltier at Toronto is supported by NSERC discovery grant A9627. The FE calculation was performed with the ABAQUS package from Hibbitt, Karlsson, and Sorensen Inc. This research is conducted in part using the research computing facilities and/or advisory services offered by Information Technology Services, the University of Hong Kong. This article is a contribution to PALSEA (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise), HOLSEA, and International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 639, \u201CSea-Level Changes from Minutes to Millennia\u201D. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 293. The mean GIA signals of RSL, U\u0307, and G\u0307 with 1\u03C3, 2\u03C3, and 3\u03C3 uncertainties are provided for downloading in DR-NTU (Data) with open access (https://doi.org/10.21979/N9/26AY8H). The deglacial RSL data, observed GNSS data used in this study are from the supplementary information of the corresponding references (with link) that are listed in the References List: Engelhart & Horton,\u00A02012; Engelhart et al.,\u00A02015; Hawkes et al.,\u00A02016; Khan et al.,\u00A02017; Love et al.,\u00A02016; Peltier et al.,\u00A02015; Vacchi et al.,\u00A02018.

Research Keywords

3D structure
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
Lateral heterogeneity
North America
Sea level change
Uncertainties

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This full text is made available under CC-BY 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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title = "Uncertainties of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model Predictions in North America Associated With 3D Structure",

abstract = "We quantify GIA prediction uncertainties of 250 1D and 3D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models through comparisons with deglacial relative sea-level (RSL) data from North America and rate of vertical land motion ({\.U}) and gravity rate of change ({\.G}) from GNSS and GRACE data, respectively. Spatially, the size of the RSL uncertainties varies across North America with the largest from Hudson Bay and near previous ice margins along the northern Atlantic and Pacific coasts, which suggests 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle and laterally varying lithospheric thickness. Temporally, RSL uncertainties decrease from the Last Glacial Maximum to present except for west of Hudson Bay and the northeastern Pacific coast. The uncertainties of both these regions increase from 30 to 45 m between 15 and 11 ka BP, which may be due to the rapid decrease of surface loading at that time. Present-day {\.U} and {\.G} uncertainties are largest in southwestern Hudson Bay with magnitudes of 2.4 mm/year and 0.4 μGal/year, mainly due to the 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle. {\textcopyright} 2020. The Authors.",

keywords = "3D structure, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, Lateral heterogeneity, North America, Sea level change, Uncertainties",

author = "Tanghua Li and Patrick Wu and Hansheng Wang and Holger Steffen and Khan, \{Nicole S.\} and Engelhart, \{Simon E.\} and Matteo Vacchi and Shaw, \{Timothy A.\} and Peltier, \{W. Richard\} and Horton, \{Benjamin P.\}",

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doi = "10.1029/2020GL087944",

language = "English",

volume = "47",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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T1 - Uncertainties of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model Predictions in North America Associated With 3D Structure

AU - Li, Tanghua

AU - Wu, Patrick

AU - Wang, Hansheng

AU - Steffen, Holger

AU - Khan, Nicole S.

AU - Engelhart, Simon E.

AU - Vacchi, Matteo

AU - Shaw, Timothy A.

AU - Peltier, W. Richard

AU - Horton, Benjamin P.

PY - 2020/5/28

Y1 - 2020/5/28

N2 - We quantify GIA prediction uncertainties of 250 1D and 3D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models through comparisons with deglacial relative sea-level (RSL) data from North America and rate of vertical land motion (U̇) and gravity rate of change (Ġ) from GNSS and GRACE data, respectively. Spatially, the size of the RSL uncertainties varies across North America with the largest from Hudson Bay and near previous ice margins along the northern Atlantic and Pacific coasts, which suggests 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle and laterally varying lithospheric thickness. Temporally, RSL uncertainties decrease from the Last Glacial Maximum to present except for west of Hudson Bay and the northeastern Pacific coast. The uncertainties of both these regions increase from 30 to 45 m between 15 and 11 ka BP, which may be due to the rapid decrease of surface loading at that time. Present-day U̇ and Ġ uncertainties are largest in southwestern Hudson Bay with magnitudes of 2.4 mm/year and 0.4 μGal/year, mainly due to the 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle. © 2020. The Authors.

AB - We quantify GIA prediction uncertainties of 250 1D and 3D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models through comparisons with deglacial relative sea-level (RSL) data from North America and rate of vertical land motion (U̇) and gravity rate of change (Ġ) from GNSS and GRACE data, respectively. Spatially, the size of the RSL uncertainties varies across North America with the largest from Hudson Bay and near previous ice margins along the northern Atlantic and Pacific coasts, which suggests 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle and laterally varying lithospheric thickness. Temporally, RSL uncertainties decrease from the Last Glacial Maximum to present except for west of Hudson Bay and the northeastern Pacific coast. The uncertainties of both these regions increase from 30 to 45 m between 15 and 11 ka BP, which may be due to the rapid decrease of surface loading at that time. Present-day U̇ and Ġ uncertainties are largest in southwestern Hudson Bay with magnitudes of 2.4 mm/year and 0.4 μGal/year, mainly due to the 3D viscosity structure in the lower mantle. © 2020. The Authors.

KW - 3D structure

KW - Glacial Isostatic Adjustment

KW - Lateral heterogeneity

KW - North America

KW - Sea level change

KW - Uncertainties

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M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

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JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 10

M1 - e2020GL087944

ER -

Uncertainties of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model Predictions in North America Associated With 3D Structure

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Research Keywords

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