Tweets and votes : A study of the 2011 Singapore General Election

Research output: Chapters, Conference Papers, Creative and Literary Works (RGC: 12, 32, 41, 45)32_Refereed conference paper (with ISBN/ISSN)peer-review

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Author(s)

  • Marko Skoric
  • Nathaniel Poor
  • Palakorn Achananuparp
  • Ee-Peng Lim
  • Jing Jiang

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
Pages2583-2591
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes

Publication series

Name
ISSN (Print)1530-1605

Conference

Title2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2012
PlaceUnited States
CityMaui, HI
Period4 - 7 January 2012

Abstract

This study focuses on the uses of Twitter during the elections, examining whether the messages posted online are reflective of the climate of public opinion. Using Twitter data obtained during the official campaign period of the 2011 Singapore General Election, we test the predictive power of tweets in forecasting the election results. In line with some previous studies, we find that during the elections the Twittersphere represents a rich source of data for gauging public opinion and that the frequency of tweets mentioning names of political parties, political candidates and contested constituencies could be used to make predictions about the share of votes at the national level, although the accuracy of the predictions was significantly lower that in the studies done in Germany and the UK. At the level of constituency the predictive power of tweets was much weaker, although still better than chance. The findings suggest that the context in which the elections take place also matters, and that issues like media freedoms, competitiveness of the elections and specifics of the electoral system may lead to certain over-and under-estimations of voting sentiment. The implications for future research are discussed. © 2012 IEEE.

Citation Format(s)

Tweets and votes : A study of the 2011 Singapore General Election. / Skoric, Marko; Poor, Nathaniel; Achananuparp, Palakorn; Lim, Ee-Peng; Jiang, Jing.

Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. 2011. p. 2583-2591 6149327.

Research output: Chapters, Conference Papers, Creative and Literary Works (RGC: 12, 32, 41, 45)32_Refereed conference paper (with ISBN/ISSN)peer-review