Tropical Stratospheric Forcings Weaken the Response of the East Asian Winter Temperature to ENSO

Ruhua Zhang; Wen Zhou; Wenshou Tian; Yue Zhang; Yuntao Jian; Yana Li

doi:10.34133/olar.0001

Tropical Stratospheric Forcings Weaken the Response of the East Asian Winter Temperature to ENSO

Ruhua Zhang, Wen Zhou^*, Wenshou Tian, Yue Zhang, Yuntao Jian, Yana Li

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Energy and Environment

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a critical role in predicting the winter surface temperature over East Asia. Numerous studies have attempted to improve the seasonal forecasting skill in view of the combined effects of ENSO and oceanic–tropospheric factors. However, high uncertainty and notable challenges still exist in using the ENSO to predict the surface temperature. Here, we showed that tropical stratospheric forcings (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO) could disrupt the response of the surface temperature to ENSO. The response of the East Asian surface temperature to El Niño/La Niña events evidently weakened in winter during the westerly/easterly phase of the QBO. This disruption has shown an increasing trend in recent decades, limiting the usefulness of ENSO alone as a seasonal predictor of the surface temperature. The modulation of the QBO on the East Asian surface temperature is achieved mainly by affecting subtropical zonal winds and North Pacific wave activity. Our analyses suggest that the QBO is a nonnegligible predictor in improving seasonal forecasts of the East Asian surface temperature, even comparable to the ENSO. Copyright © 2023 Ruhua Zhang et al.

Original language	English
Article number	0001
Journal	Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research
Volume	2
Online published	10 Jan 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.34133/olar.0001
Publication status	Published - 2023

Funding

This research is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42120104001, 42005010, and 42105058), Hong Kong RGC General Research Fund (11300920), and Core project (CORE is a joint research center for ocean research between QNLM and HKUST).

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This full text is made available under CC-BY 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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title = "Tropical Stratospheric Forcings Weaken the Response of the East Asian Winter Temperature to ENSO",

abstract = "The El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a critical role in predicting the winter surface temperature over East Asia. Numerous studies have attempted to improve the seasonal forecasting skill in view of the combined effects of ENSO and oceanic–tropospheric factors. However, high uncertainty and notable challenges still exist in using the ENSO to predict the surface temperature. Here, we showed that tropical stratospheric forcings (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO) could disrupt the response of the surface temperature to ENSO. The response of the East Asian surface temperature to El Ni{\~n}o/La Ni{\~n}a events evidently weakened in winter during the westerly/easterly phase of the QBO. This disruption has shown an increasing trend in recent decades, limiting the usefulness of ENSO alone as a seasonal predictor of the surface temperature. The modulation of the QBO on the East Asian surface temperature is achieved mainly by affecting subtropical zonal winds and North Pacific wave activity. Our analyses suggest that the QBO is a nonnegligible predictor in improving seasonal forecasts of the East Asian surface temperature, even comparable to the ENSO. Copyright {\textcopyright} 2023 Ruhua Zhang et al.",

author = "Ruhua Zhang and Wen Zhou and Wenshou Tian and Yue Zhang and Yuntao Jian and Yana Li",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.34133/olar.0001",

language = "English",

volume = "2",

journal = "Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research",

issn = "2771-0378",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

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T1 - Tropical Stratospheric Forcings Weaken the Response of the East Asian Winter Temperature to ENSO

AU - Zhang, Ruhua

AU - Zhou, Wen

AU - Tian, Wenshou

AU - Zhang, Yue

AU - Jian, Yuntao

AU - Li, Yana

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a critical role in predicting the winter surface temperature over East Asia. Numerous studies have attempted to improve the seasonal forecasting skill in view of the combined effects of ENSO and oceanic–tropospheric factors. However, high uncertainty and notable challenges still exist in using the ENSO to predict the surface temperature. Here, we showed that tropical stratospheric forcings (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO) could disrupt the response of the surface temperature to ENSO. The response of the East Asian surface temperature to El Niño/La Niña events evidently weakened in winter during the westerly/easterly phase of the QBO. This disruption has shown an increasing trend in recent decades, limiting the usefulness of ENSO alone as a seasonal predictor of the surface temperature. The modulation of the QBO on the East Asian surface temperature is achieved mainly by affecting subtropical zonal winds and North Pacific wave activity. Our analyses suggest that the QBO is a nonnegligible predictor in improving seasonal forecasts of the East Asian surface temperature, even comparable to the ENSO. Copyright © 2023 Ruhua Zhang et al.

AB - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a critical role in predicting the winter surface temperature over East Asia. Numerous studies have attempted to improve the seasonal forecasting skill in view of the combined effects of ENSO and oceanic–tropospheric factors. However, high uncertainty and notable challenges still exist in using the ENSO to predict the surface temperature. Here, we showed that tropical stratospheric forcings (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO) could disrupt the response of the surface temperature to ENSO. The response of the East Asian surface temperature to El Niño/La Niña events evidently weakened in winter during the westerly/easterly phase of the QBO. This disruption has shown an increasing trend in recent decades, limiting the usefulness of ENSO alone as a seasonal predictor of the surface temperature. The modulation of the QBO on the East Asian surface temperature is achieved mainly by affecting subtropical zonal winds and North Pacific wave activity. Our analyses suggest that the QBO is a nonnegligible predictor in improving seasonal forecasts of the East Asian surface temperature, even comparable to the ENSO. Copyright © 2023 Ruhua Zhang et al.

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DO - 10.34133/olar.0001

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 2771-0378

VL - 2

JO - Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research

JF - Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research

M1 - 0001

ER -

Tropical Stratospheric Forcings Weaken the Response of the East Asian Winter Temperature to ENSO

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GRF: Decadal Variation in the Impact of the NAO and Ural Blocking on Subseasonal Variation of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

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Tropical Stratospheric Forcings Weaken the Response of the East Asian Winter Temperature to ENSO

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GRF: Decadal Variation in the Impact of the NAO and Ural Blocking on Subseasonal Variation of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

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