Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis with Age-specific Disease Progression

Yu Mu; Tsz-Lik Chan; Hsiang-Yu Yuan; Wing-Cheong Lo

doi:10.1007/s11538-022-01032-4

Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis with Age-specific Disease Progression

Yu Mu, Tsz-Lik Chan, Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Wing-Cheong Lo^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

52 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

Demographic structure and latent phenomenon are two essential factors determining the rate of tuberculosis transmission. However, only a few mathematical models considered age structure coupling with disease stages of infectious individuals. This paper develops a system of delay partial differential equations to model tuberculosis transmission in a heterogeneous population. The system considers demographic structure coupling with the continuous development of disease stage, which is crucial for studying how aging affects tuberculosis dynamics and disease progression. Here, we determine the basic reproduction number, and several numerical simulations are used to investigate the influence of various progression rates on tuberculosis dynamics. Our results support that the aging effect on the disease progression rate contributes to tuberculosis permanence.

Original language	English
Article number	73
Journal	Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Volume	84
Issue number	7
Online published	15 Jun 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01032-4
Publication status	Published - Jul 2022

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Research Keywords

Multi-group tuberculosis system
Distributed delay
Basic reproduction number
Age-structured population model
GLOBAL STABILITY
NATURAL-HISTORY
MODEL
LATENCY
EPIDEMIOLOGY
REINFECTION
VACCINE
IMPACT
RISKS
TB

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COPYRIGHT TERMS OF DEPOSITED POSTPRINT FILE: This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01032-4.

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abstract = "Demographic structure and latent phenomenon are two essential factors determining the rate of tuberculosis transmission. However, only a few mathematical models considered age structure coupling with disease stages of infectious individuals. This paper develops a system of delay partial differential equations to model tuberculosis transmission in a heterogeneous population. The system considers demographic structure coupling with the continuous development of disease stage, which is crucial for studying how aging affects tuberculosis dynamics and disease progression. Here, we determine the basic reproduction number, and several numerical simulations are used to investigate the influence of various progression rates on tuberculosis dynamics. Our results support that the aging effect on the disease progression rate contributes to tuberculosis permanence.",

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author = "Yu Mu and Tsz-Lik Chan and Hsiang-Yu Yuan and Wing-Cheong Lo",

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AU - Mu, Yu

AU - Chan, Tsz-Lik

AU - Yuan, Hsiang-Yu

AU - Lo, Wing-Cheong

PY - 2022/7

Y1 - 2022/7

N2 - Demographic structure and latent phenomenon are two essential factors determining the rate of tuberculosis transmission. However, only a few mathematical models considered age structure coupling with disease stages of infectious individuals. This paper develops a system of delay partial differential equations to model tuberculosis transmission in a heterogeneous population. The system considers demographic structure coupling with the continuous development of disease stage, which is crucial for studying how aging affects tuberculosis dynamics and disease progression. Here, we determine the basic reproduction number, and several numerical simulations are used to investigate the influence of various progression rates on tuberculosis dynamics. Our results support that the aging effect on the disease progression rate contributes to tuberculosis permanence.

AB - Demographic structure and latent phenomenon are two essential factors determining the rate of tuberculosis transmission. However, only a few mathematical models considered age structure coupling with disease stages of infectious individuals. This paper develops a system of delay partial differential equations to model tuberculosis transmission in a heterogeneous population. The system considers demographic structure coupling with the continuous development of disease stage, which is crucial for studying how aging affects tuberculosis dynamics and disease progression. Here, we determine the basic reproduction number, and several numerical simulations are used to investigate the influence of various progression rates on tuberculosis dynamics. Our results support that the aging effect on the disease progression rate contributes to tuberculosis permanence.

KW - Multi-group tuberculosis system

KW - Distributed delay

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - Age-structured population model

KW - GLOBAL STABILITY

KW - NATURAL-HISTORY

KW - MODEL

KW - LATENCY

KW - EPIDEMIOLOGY

KW - REINFECTION

KW - VACCINE

KW - IMPACT

KW - RISKS

KW - TB

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JO - Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

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ER -

Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis with Age-specific Disease Progression

Abstract

UN SDGs

Research Keywords

Publisher's Copyright Statement

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