Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

N. Saintilan; N. S. Khan; E. Ashe; J. J. Kelleway; K. Rogers; C. D. Woodroffe; B. P. Horton

doi:10.1126/science.aba2656

Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

N. Saintilan^*
, N. S. Khan
, E. Ashe
, J. J. Kelleway
, K. Rogers
, C. D. Woodroffe
, B. P. Horton

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

382 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The response of mangroves to high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) is poorly understood. We explore the limits of mangrove vertical accretion to sustained periods of RSLR in the final stages of deglaciation. The timing of initiation and rate of mangrove vertical accretion were compared with independently modeled rates of RSLR for 78 locations. Mangrove forests expanded between 9800 and 7500 years ago, vertically accreting thick sequences of organic sediments at a rate principally driven by the rate of RSLR, representing an important carbon sink. We found it very likely (>90% probability) that mangroves were unable to initiate sustained accretion when RSLR rates exceeded 6.1 millimeters per year. This threshold is likely to be surpassed on tropical coastlines within 30 years under high-emissions scenarios. © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1118-1121
Journal	Science
Volume	368
Issue number	6495
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba2656
Publication status	Published - 5 Jun 2020
Externally published	Yes

Funding

We thank J. Mitrovica of Harvard University for providing the GIA model. T. A. Shaw of Nanyang Technology University assisted with the preparation of the figures. Figure 1 used the image library of the Integration and Application Network, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (ian.umces.edu/imagelibrary/). N.S. was supported by an Outside Studies Program grant from Macquarie University and AINSE. B.P.H. is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2018-T2-1-030, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative. This article is a contribution to PALSEA2 (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise), a working group of the International Union for Quaternary Sciences (INQUA), and International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 639, “Sea-Level Changes from Minutes to Millennia.” This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 294. K.R. received funding from the Australian Research Council (FT130100532).

Policy Impact

Cited in Policy Documents

Access Output

10.1126/science.aba2656

Other Access Options

Check CityUHK Library

Permanent Link

Right click to copy link

Cite this

@article{89c11ac3a74a4a88894bd1cde3094b6a,

title = "Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise",

abstract = "The response of mangroves to high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) is poorly understood. We explore the limits of mangrove vertical accretion to sustained periods of RSLR in the final stages of deglaciation. The timing of initiation and rate of mangrove vertical accretion were compared with independently modeled rates of RSLR for 78 locations. Mangrove forests expanded between 9800 and 7500 years ago, vertically accreting thick sequences of organic sediments at a rate principally driven by the rate of RSLR, representing an important carbon sink. We found it very likely (>90\% probability) that mangroves were unable to initiate sustained accretion when RSLR rates exceeded 6.1 millimeters per year. This threshold is likely to be surpassed on tropical coastlines within 30 years under high-emissions scenarios. {\textcopyright} 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works",

author = "N. Saintilan and Khan, \{N. S.\} and E. Ashe and Kelleway, \{J. J.\} and K. Rogers and Woodroffe, \{C. D.\} and Horton, \{B. P.\}",

year = "2020",

month = jun,

day = "5",

doi = "10.1126/science.aba2656",

language = "English",

volume = "368",

pages = "1118--1121",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6495",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

AU - Saintilan, N.

AU - Khan, N. S.

AU - Ashe, E.

AU - Kelleway, J. J.

AU - Rogers, K.

AU - Woodroffe, C. D.

AU - Horton, B. P.

PY - 2020/6/5

Y1 - 2020/6/5

N2 - The response of mangroves to high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) is poorly understood. We explore the limits of mangrove vertical accretion to sustained periods of RSLR in the final stages of deglaciation. The timing of initiation and rate of mangrove vertical accretion were compared with independently modeled rates of RSLR for 78 locations. Mangrove forests expanded between 9800 and 7500 years ago, vertically accreting thick sequences of organic sediments at a rate principally driven by the rate of RSLR, representing an important carbon sink. We found it very likely (>90% probability) that mangroves were unable to initiate sustained accretion when RSLR rates exceeded 6.1 millimeters per year. This threshold is likely to be surpassed on tropical coastlines within 30 years under high-emissions scenarios. © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works

AB - The response of mangroves to high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) is poorly understood. We explore the limits of mangrove vertical accretion to sustained periods of RSLR in the final stages of deglaciation. The timing of initiation and rate of mangrove vertical accretion were compared with independently modeled rates of RSLR for 78 locations. Mangrove forests expanded between 9800 and 7500 years ago, vertically accreting thick sequences of organic sediments at a rate principally driven by the rate of RSLR, representing an important carbon sink. We found it very likely (>90% probability) that mangroves were unable to initiate sustained accretion when RSLR rates exceeded 6.1 millimeters per year. This threshold is likely to be surpassed on tropical coastlines within 30 years under high-emissions scenarios. © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85086007925

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/pubmetrics.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85086007925&origin=recordpage

UR - https://app-overton-io.ezproxy.cityu.edu.hk/articles.php?query=10.1126/science.aba2656

U2 - 10.1126/science.aba2656

DO - 10.1126/science.aba2656

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

C2 - 32499441

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 368

SP - 1118

EP - 1121

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6495

ER -

Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

Abstract

Funding

Policy Impact

Access Output

Other Access Options

Permanent Link

Other Files and Links

Fingerprint

Cite this