The Role of Expectation Fulfilment in Migrants' Return Migration Intentions: Encouragement or Deterrent?

Migrants often form expectations about destinations before migration, regarding factors such as employment and local amenities; yet, due to imperfect information, many of these pre-migration expectations cannot be fully fulfilled after arrival. Both the Neoclassical Economics (NE) and the New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM) theories posit that expectation fulfilment influences return migration, albeit in opposite directions. However, few studies have empirically tested this relationship. This study addresses this gap by examining how expectation fulfilment influences migrants' return intentions using survey data from approximately 7800 internal migrants across 15 Chinese prefectural cities. By disaggregating expectations into 12 distinct types, we demonstrate that the influence of expectation fulfilment on migrants' return intentions varies substantially. Our findings generally support NE: fulfilling expectations—particularly regarding wages, medical services, and amenities—significantly reduces migrants' return intentions. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that the impact of expectation fulfilment varies by migrants' family ties, skill level, and age. Specifically, the fulfilment of wage and career expectations is particularly crucial for younger and high-skilled migrants. However, consistent with NELM theory, for middle-aged migrants and migrants with family ties in their hometown, fulfilling expectations—especially regarding career prospects—increases the likelihood of return. This study is among the first to empirically test the role of expectation fulfilment in shaping migrants' return intentions, providing a nuanced understanding of the drivers of return migration. Our findings suggest that host cities can encourage migrants' settlement by addressing their key expectations, especially regarding wages, career opportunities, and quality of life. © 2026 The Author(s). Population, Space and Place published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.