The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea-Level Change in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Region

Dhrubajyoti Samanta; Vedant Vairagi; Kristin Richter; Elaine L. McDonagh; Kristopher B. Karnauskas; Nathalie F. Goodkin; Lock Yue Chew; Benjamin P. Horton

doi:10.1029/2023EF003684

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea-Level Change in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Region

Dhrubajyoti Samanta^*, Vedant Vairagi, Kristin Richter, Elaine L. McDonagh, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Lock Yue Chew, Benjamin P. Horton

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

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Abstract

Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea-level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea-level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea-level rise in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. © 2024. The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023EF003684
Journal	Earth's Future
Volume	12
Issue number	3
Online published	29 Feb 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003684
Publication status	Published - Mar 2024
Externally published	Yes

Funding

DS acknowledges Justin Dauwels and Benjamin Grandey for useful discussions. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. Figures were created using Matlab 2022b and NCAR Command Language (version 6.6.2) [Software]. (2019). Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5. This Research is supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore, and National Environment Agency, Singapore under the National Sea level Programme Funding Initiative (Award No. USS-IF-2020-3). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the views of the National Research Foundation, Singapore, and the National Environment Agency, Singapore. This study was also supported by Singapore Ministry of Education (MOE) Academic Research Fund Tier 3 Project MOE-2019-T3-1-004 funded at Earth Observatory of Singapore. This is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution number 520. KBK acknowledges funding support from the NASA Sea level Change Science Program, Award 80NSSC20K1123.

Research Keywords

attribution
climate change
CMIP6
DAMIP
Indo-Pacific warm pool
sea-level

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This full text is made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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abstract = "Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea-level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea-level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea-level rise in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. {\textcopyright} 2024. The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.",

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author = "Dhrubajyoti Samanta and Vedant Vairagi and Kristin Richter and McDonagh, {Elaine L.} and Karnauskas, {Kristopher B.} and Goodkin, {Nathalie F.} and Chew, {Lock Yue} and Horton, {Benjamin P.}",

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AU - Samanta, Dhrubajyoti

AU - Vairagi, Vedant

AU - Richter, Kristin

AU - McDonagh, Elaine L.

AU - Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

AU - Goodkin, Nathalie F.

AU - Chew, Lock Yue

AU - Horton, Benjamin P.

PY - 2024/3

Y1 - 2024/3

N2 - Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea-level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea-level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea-level rise in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. © 2024. The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

AB - Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea-level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea-level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea-level rise in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. © 2024. The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

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KW - climate change

KW - CMIP6

KW - DAMIP

KW - Indo-Pacific warm pool

KW - sea-level

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DO - 10.1029/2023EF003684

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 2328-4277

VL - 12

JO - Earth's Future

JF - Earth's Future

IS - 3

M1 - e2023EF003684

ER -

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea-Level Change in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Region

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Research Keywords

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