The prediction of exit choice using cumulative prospect value

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

1 Scopus Citations
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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)20-25
Journal / PublicationJournal of Safety Science and Resilience
Issue number1
Online published18 Nov 2022
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2023



Exit choice is essential for pedestrian safety and evacuation efficiency during the context of an emergency. Cumulative prospect theory is a widespread realistic decision-making theory that can transform choice outcomes and probabilities into subjective terms and integrate them as a parameter of cumulative prospect value (CPV), which determines the decision. The main contribution of this paper is the use of the CPV to predict exit choice. Furthermore, the different decision-making rules including Max, exponential(Expo), and Ratio (i.e., the three variable choice functions) were summarized and examined. This study used a confusion matrix to compare the predicted results with experimental data. Consequently, the parameters of Accuracy and F1-score showed that the predictions from Max and Expo were significantly more realistic while the results from Ratio were much more robust.

Research Area(s)

  • Cumulative prospect value, Decision-making behavior, Evacuation model, Exit choice

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