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The intensification of the strongest nor’easters

  • Kevin Chen
  • , Xueke Li
  • , Mackenzie M. Weaver
  • , Shannon A. Christiansen*
  • , Annabelle L. Horton
  • , Michael E. Mann*
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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Abstract

Nor’easters are coastal extratropical cyclones that feed upon both thermal contrasts (meridional and land-ocean) and oceanic latent heat release, causing them to intensify along the U.S. East Coast. With central pressures that sometimes rival those of tropical cyclones, they represent a significant coastal hazard and are often associated with strong winds, heavy snowfall, disruption, and damage. While interest in studying the impacts of climate change on storm behavior is growing, nor’easters have historically received far less attention than tropical cyclones, largely due to challenges in documenting and categorizing these storms combined with the relatively short observational record. Here, we address these challenges by employing a cyclone tracking approach in concurrence with long-term reanalysis data to create a reliable historical database of these storms. We find a significant increasing trend in the maximum wind speeds of the most intense (>66th percentile) nor’easters. We also observe an increasing trend in hourly precipitation rates associated with these storms. Such changes have profound implications for coastal cities and shorelines, increasing the risk of coastal flooding and erosion. © 2025 the Author(s).
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2510029122
Number of pages7
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume122
Issue number29
Online published14 Jul 2025
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 Jul 2025
Externally publishedYes

Funding

This work was supported by funding from The University of Pennsylvania.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities
    SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Research Keywords

  • climate change
  • extratropical cyclones
  • intensity
  • nor’easters
  • precipitation

Publisher's Copyright Statement

  • This full text is made available under CC-BY 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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