The implications of El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal for South China monsoon climate

The objective of this research is to explore the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a possible connection between winter monsoon and summer monsoon over South China. In boreal winter, the strong or weak northerly anomalies due to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), sweep across the continent to the costal regions, which might be favorable for the occurrence of an ENSO event. In boreal summer, South China tends to experience less (more) rainfall and more (less) temperature extremes which might be in the mature phase of a warm (cold) ENSO event. It is also found that more frequent cold surges might be followed by less temperature extremes in the coming year. The possible connection might be that the western Pacific subtropical high after a strong (weak) EAWM year would move northward (southward) through the modification of a ENSO event; this northward (southward) western Pacific subtropical high might result in earlier (later) south China summer monsoon onset and lead to a strong (weak) summer monsoon in the coming year. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.