The Identity Shift in Hong Kong since 1997: Measurement and Explanation

This article addresses the challenges of understanding, measuring and explaining political identities in post-1997 Hong Kong. We show that national and local identities are better conceptualized as two distinct attitudes and captured with separate scaled items than as opposite poles of one attitude measured in a single categorical item. This approach reveals that the key shift occurred not in local identity, but in nationalistic sentiments, which have initially increased but are on a downward trend since 2008. It also shows that national and local identities were perceived as robustly compatible for most years since 1997, but have begun to drift apart in recent years. Considering competing accounts to explain national identity strength, trust in the central government stands out as the dominant factor. Discontent with livelihood conditions and socio-structural variables, either have no significant effect or are to a large part the result of differences in political trust.