The collective wisdom in the COVID-19 research : Comparison and synthesis of epidemiological parameter estimates in preprints and peer-reviewed articles

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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Author(s)

  • Yuejiao Wang
  • Zhidong Cao
  • Daniel Dajun Zeng
  • Qingpeng Zhang
  • Tianyi Luo

Related Research Unit(s)

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-6
Journal / PublicationInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume104
Online published19 Dec 2020
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2021

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Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to explore the collective wisdom of preprints related to COVID-19 by comparing and synthesizing them with results of peer-reviewed publications. Methods: PubMed, Google Scholar, medRxiv, bioRxiv, arXiv, and SSRN were searched for papers regarding the estimation of four epidemiological parameters of COVID-19: the basic reproduction number, incubation period, infectious period, and case-fatality-rate. Distributions of parameters and timeliness of preprints and peer-reviewed papers were compared. Four parameters in two groups were synthesized by bootstrapping, and their validities were evaluated by simulated cumulative cases of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-dead-cumulative (SEIRDC) model. Results: A total of 106 papers were included for analysis. The distributions of four parameters in two literature groups were close, and the timeliness of preprints was better. Synthesized estimates of the basic reproduction number (3.18, 95% CI 2.85–3.53), incubation period (5.44 days, 95% CI 4.98–5.99), infectious period (6.25 days, 95% CI 5.09–7.51), and case-fatality-rate (4.51%, 95% CI 3.41%–6.29%) were obtained. Simulated cumulative cases of the SEIRDC model matched well with the onset cases in China. Conclusions: The validity of the COVID-19 parameter estimations of the preprints was on par with that of peer-reviewed publications, and synthesized results of literatures could reduce the uncertainty and be used for epidemic decision-making.

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Full text of this publication does not contain sufficient affiliation information. With consent from the author(s) concerned, the Research Unit(s) information for this record is based on the existing academic department affiliation of the author(s).

Citation Format(s)

The collective wisdom in the COVID-19 research: Comparison and synthesis of epidemiological parameter estimates in preprints and peer-reviewed articles. / Wang, Yuejiao; Cao, Zhidong; Zeng, Daniel Dajun et al.
In: International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol. 104, 03.2021, p. 1-6.

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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