System dynamic analysis on building construction associated carbon emissions using project-level data: Drivers, mitigation pathway, and policy insights

With global population growth and rapid urbanization, the scale and number of building construction projects continue to rise, resulting in extensive consumption of non-renewable resources and carbon dioxide emissions. However, research on the dynamic evolution of carbon emissions during the construction phase and the complex multi-factor interaction mechanisms remains limited. To address this, we introduce the Driving Forces-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework to construct a list of 25 key influencing factors, including building area, material consumption, and environmental management costs. Based on 190 construction project cases, a combined method integrating Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretive Structural Modeling (DEMATEL-ISM) and system dynamics (SD) was used to reveal a five-level hierarchical transmission mechanism of carbon emissions. Results show that building area and project budget are the core drivers, with influence degrees of 1.785 and 1.421, respectively, highlighting project scale expansion as the fundamental cause of carbon emission growth. Material carbon intensity, energy carbon intensity, and total waste generation directly impact emissions, accounting for 21.6 % of the system weight. The study confirms that construction carbon emissions follow a ''scale-driven → resource consumption → end-of-pipe emissions'' transmission pathway, with complex feedback and coupling relationships among factors. Moreover, they exhibit clear stage characteristics and systemic lag effects. Single-dimensional optimizations are insufficient to achieve substantial emission reduction. Instead, multi-factor collaborative control and systematic interventions are essential to coordinate economic development, resource efficiency, and environmental governance requirements. This research provides the comprehensive framework and strategies for carbon emission reduction in the building construction sector globally. © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.