Spatial-Temporal Variation of Soil Sliding Probability in Cohesive Slopes with Spatially Variable Soils

Landslide is a common and severe geohazard that may pose significant risk to adjacent structures such as buildings and buried pipelines. Identification of the failure slip surface is critical for the assessment and management of landslide risk on adjacent structures since the structures are adversely affected by large deformation of soil when landslides occur and they are not located far away from the failure slip surface and sliding soil mass. Previous studies showed that the location of the failure slip surface may change during the failure process of a slope, but the failure slip surface identified by the commonly used limit equilibrium method (LEM) only corresponds to the initiation of slope failure. In addition, soil properties vary spatially, and such variability may have a significant influence on the location or spatial distribution of the failure slip surface. In this study, a sliding probability is proposed for a soil element within a slope, and the spatial-temporal variation in the sliding probability within a cohesive slope is explored to investigate evolution of the spatial distribution of the failure slip surface during the entire process of a landslide. The investigation is performed using Monte Carlo simulations integrated with smoothed particle hydrodynamics. The soil sliding probability at each location within a slope is estimated at each stage of the failure process and used subsequently in the assessment and management of landslide risk on adjacent structures.