Social Media and Electoral Predictions : A Meta-Analytic Review

Research output: Chapters, Conference Papers, Creative and Literary Works (RGC: 12, 32, 41, 45)32_Refereed conference paper (with ISBN/ISSN)peer-review

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Author(s)

Related Research Unit(s)

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication32ND Bled eConference Humanizing Technology for a Sustainable Society
Subtitle of host publicationConference Proceedings
EditorsAndreja Pucihar, Mirjana Kljajić Borštnar, Roger Bons
PublisherUniversity of Maribor Press
Pages764-781
ISBN (Electronic)978-961-286-280-0
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2019

Publication series

NameBled eConference Humanizing Technology for a Sustainable Society, BLED - Conference Proceedings

Conference

Title32nd Bled eConference Humanizing Technology for a Sustainable Society
PlaceSlovenia
CityBled
Period16 - 19 June 2019

Abstract

Can social media data be used to make reasonably accurate estimates of electoral outcomes? We conducted a meta-analytic review to examine the predictive performance of different features of social media posts and different methods in predicting political elections: (1) content features; and (2) structural features. Across 45 published studies, we find significant variance in the quality of predictions, which on average still lag behind those in traditional survey research. More specifically, our findings that machine learning-based approaches generally outperform lexicon-based analyses, while combining structural and content features yields most accurate predictions.

Research Area(s)

  • social media, Election prediction, Network Feature, Content Feature, Meta-Analytic Review

Citation Format(s)

Social Media and Electoral Predictions : A Meta-Analytic Review. / SKORIC, Marko; LIU, Jing; JAIDKA, Kokil.

32ND Bled eConference Humanizing Technology for a Sustainable Society: Conference Proceedings. ed. / Andreja Pucihar; Mirjana Kljajić Borštnar; Roger Bons. University of Maribor Press, 2019. p. 764-781 (Bled eConference Humanizing Technology for a Sustainable Society, BLED - Conference Proceedings).

Research output: Chapters, Conference Papers, Creative and Literary Works (RGC: 12, 32, 41, 45)32_Refereed conference paper (with ISBN/ISSN)peer-review