Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalNot applicablepeer-review

3 Scopus Citations
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Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2661–2672
Journal / PublicationClimate Dynamics
Volume50
Issue number7-8
Early online date20 Jun 2017
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2018

Abstract

A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models.

Research Area(s)

  • Tropical cyclone landfall, Tropical cyclone intensity, Downscaling, Regional climate model, WRF, East Asia