Sensitivity of urban rainfall to anthropogenic heat flux: A numerical experiment

In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of local precipitation statistics to surface heat fluxes in an urban subdomain in the Pearl River Delta region, which is situated along the coast of south China. By conducting simulations of a past record-breaking rainfall event with a cloud-resolving model, we found that rainfall rates and the spatial distribution of accumulated rainfall are very sensitive to imposed urban surface heat fluxes. Diagnostics of the planetary boundary layer show increasing fluctuations of turbulence and buoyant turbulence production with increasing surface heat emission, causing increased near-surface mixing and convection. Heavy precipitation rates show a higher sensitivity than lighter rates. The extreme tail of the distribution is hence more affected. This study serves as an example of how sensitive the magnitude of local high impact weather phenomena can be to local forcing.