TY - JOUR
T1 - SEASONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING
AU - Klotzbach, Philip
AU - Blake, Eric
AU - Camp, Joanne
AU - Caron, Louis-Philippe
AU - Chan, Johnny C. L.
AU - Kang, Nam-Young
AU - Kuleshov, Yuri
AU - Lee, Sai-Ming
AU - Murakami, Hiroyuki
AU - Saunders, Mark
AU - Takaya, Yuhei
AU - Vitart, Frederic
AU - Zhan, Ruifen
PY - 2019/9
Y1 - 2019/9
N2 - This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity. In addition, several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood. Real-time Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April, modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018. Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018. Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins. A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal (e.g., multi-year) timescales is included. Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.
AB - This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity. In addition, several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood. Real-time Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April, modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018. Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018. Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins. A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal (e.g., multi-year) timescales is included. Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.
KW - hurricane
KW - typhoon
KW - tropical cyclone
KW - seasonal forecasting
KW - forecast skill
UR - http://gateway.isiknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS&KeyUT=000503984300003
U2 - 10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.003
DO - 10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.003
M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal
SN - 2225-6032
VL - 8
SP - 134
EP - 149
JO - Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
JF - Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
IS - 3
ER -