Seasonal tropical cyclone activity prediction using a regional climate model

Since the 1980s, various statistical prediction schemes of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity have been developed for different ocean basins. Recently, with the advance of dynamic climate predictions, a few schemes have been used to predict TC activity based on global dynamical models. Some projections of TC activity under different global warming scenarios have also been made from these models.However, these models generally have relatively low resolution and thus identification of TC-like vortices becomes an issue. In this paper, we will present simulation results from a regional climate model, a modified version of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3), on TC activity in the western North Pacific. With 20 years of simulations using the ERA40 reanalyses as boundary conditions, the model is able to reproduce largely the climatology of TC activity in the western North Pacific in terms of monthly frequency, latitude/longitude distributions, etc. The interannual variability can also be simulated quite well. These results demonstrate the possibility of using a regional climate model for real-time seasonal TC activity prediction as well as future projections. Some preliminary results in these two directions will also be presented at the Symposium.