Scale-free model for spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of avian influenza

Michael Small; David M Walker; Chi K. Tse

doi:10.34385/proc.41.18PM2-A-2

Scale-free model for spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of avian influenza

Michael Small^*
, David M Walker
, Chi K. Tse

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapters, Conference Papers, Creative and Literary Works › RGC 32 - Refereed conference paper (with host publication) › peer-review

Abstract

Traditional models for geographical spread of infectious agents invoke a diffusion mechanism. By observing the global distribution of avian influenza outbreaks among wild and domestic birds, we show that this model is not appropriate. We find that the outbreaks of avian influenza follow a scale-free distribution that can accurately model connectivity between outbreaks on a scale-free complex network. We explore possible mechanisms that can generate such complex transmission dynamics. Our results indicate that heterogeneity in both the human and animal populations is insufficient to explain our results. Only when we model the potential transmission pathways between flocks with a scale-free network do we obtain a scale-free distribution of connectivity between outbreaks.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and Its Applications, NOLTA'07
Pages	264-267
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.34385/proc.41.18PM2-A-2
Publication status	Published - Sept 2007
Externally published	Yes
Event	2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications (NOLTA'07) - Vancouver, Canada Duration: 16 Sept 2007 → 19 Sept 2007

Publication series

Name	IEICE Proceeding Series
ISSN (Electronic)	2188-5079

Conference

Conference	2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications (NOLTA'07)
Abbreviated title	NOLTA 2007
Place	Canada
City	Vancouver
Period	16/09/07 → 19/09/07

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SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

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@inproceedings{c027587a989a4eaa8b24da3cbe5750f8,

title = "Scale-free model for spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of avian influenza",

abstract = "Traditional models for geographical spread of infectious agents invoke a diffusion mechanism. By observing the global distribution of avian influenza outbreaks among wild and domestic birds, we show that this model is not appropriate. We find that the outbreaks of avian influenza follow a scale-free distribution that can accurately model connectivity between outbreaks on a scale-free complex network. We explore possible mechanisms that can generate such complex transmission dynamics. Our results indicate that heterogeneity in both the human and animal populations is insufficient to explain our results. Only when we model the potential transmission pathways between flocks with a scale-free network do we obtain a scale-free distribution of connectivity between outbreaks.",

author = "Michael Small and Walker, \{David M\} and Tse, \{Chi K.\}",

year = "2007",

month = sep,

doi = "10.34385/proc.41.18PM2-A-2",

language = "English",

series = "IEICE Proceeding Series",

pages = "264--267",

booktitle = "2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and Its Applications, NOLTA'07",

note = "2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications (NOLTA'07), NOLTA 2007 ; Conference date: 16-09-2007 Through 19-09-2007",

}

Small, M, Walker, DM & Tse, CK 2007, Scale-free model for spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of avian influenza. in 2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and Its Applications, NOLTA'07. IEICE Proceeding Series, pp. 264-267, 2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications (NOLTA'07), Vancouver, Canada, 16/09/07. https://doi.org/10.34385/proc.41.18PM2-A-2

Scale-free model for spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of avian influenza. / Small, Michael; Walker, David M; Tse, Chi K.
2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and Its Applications, NOLTA'07. 2007. p. 264-267 (IEICE Proceeding Series).

Research output: Chapters, Conference Papers, Creative and Literary Works › RGC 32 - Refereed conference paper (with host publication) › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Scale-free model for spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of avian influenza

AU - Small, Michael

AU - Walker, David M

AU - Tse, Chi K.

PY - 2007/9

Y1 - 2007/9

N2 - Traditional models for geographical spread of infectious agents invoke a diffusion mechanism. By observing the global distribution of avian influenza outbreaks among wild and domestic birds, we show that this model is not appropriate. We find that the outbreaks of avian influenza follow a scale-free distribution that can accurately model connectivity between outbreaks on a scale-free complex network. We explore possible mechanisms that can generate such complex transmission dynamics. Our results indicate that heterogeneity in both the human and animal populations is insufficient to explain our results. Only when we model the potential transmission pathways between flocks with a scale-free network do we obtain a scale-free distribution of connectivity between outbreaks.

AB - Traditional models for geographical spread of infectious agents invoke a diffusion mechanism. By observing the global distribution of avian influenza outbreaks among wild and domestic birds, we show that this model is not appropriate. We find that the outbreaks of avian influenza follow a scale-free distribution that can accurately model connectivity between outbreaks on a scale-free complex network. We explore possible mechanisms that can generate such complex transmission dynamics. Our results indicate that heterogeneity in both the human and animal populations is insufficient to explain our results. Only when we model the potential transmission pathways between flocks with a scale-free network do we obtain a scale-free distribution of connectivity between outbreaks.

U2 - 10.34385/proc.41.18PM2-A-2

DO - 10.34385/proc.41.18PM2-A-2

M3 - RGC 32 - Refereed conference paper (with host publication)

T3 - IEICE Proceeding Series

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EP - 267

BT - 2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and Its Applications, NOLTA'07

T2 - 2007 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications (NOLTA'07)

Y2 - 16 September 2007 through 19 September 2007

ER -

Scale-free model for spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of avian influenza

Abstract

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Conference

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