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Risk-Neutral Generative Networks

  • Zhonghao XIAN (Co-first Author)
  • , Xing YAN (Co-first Author)
  • , Cheuk Hang LEUNG
  • , Qi WU*
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

5 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

We present a generative approach to price options and extract risk-neutral densities from the market. Specifically, we model the underlying log-returns on the time-to-maturity continuum as a generative model from standard normal. Neural nets are used to represent the term structures of the location, the scale, and the higher-order moments. We impose stringent conditions on the learning process to ensure no arbitrage. This model allows for the efficient generation of samples to price options across strikes and maturities. We have validated the effectiveness of this approach by benchmarking it against a comprehensive set of baseline models. Experiments show that the extracted risk-neutral densities accommodate a diverse range of shapes. Its accuracy significantly outperforms the extensive set of baseline models—including three parametric models and nine stochastic process models—in terms of accuracy and stability. The success of this approach is attributed to its capacity to offer flexible term structures for risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis. © 2026 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)961-980
JournalQuantitative Finance
Volume26
Issue number6
Online published19 Jun 2026
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2026

Funding

Qi Wu acknowledges the support from The CityU-JD Digits Joint Laboratory in Financial Technology and Engineering; The Hong Kong Research Grants Council [General Research Fund 11219420/9043008 and 11200219/9042900]; and The HK Institute of Data Science. The work described in this paper was partially supported by the InnoHK initiative, the Government of the HKSAR, and the Laboratory for AI-Powered Financial Technologies.

Research Keywords

  • Risk-neutral density
  • No-arbitrage conditions
  • Option pricing
  • Generative models
  • Model calibration

Publisher's Copyright Statement

  • This full text is made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

RGC Funding Information

  • RGC-funded

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