Return on investment of the pathways to prevention project from the reduced probability of the onset of serious youth offending

Matthew Manning; Gabriel T.W.  Wong; Ross Homel; Jacqueline Allen; Kate Frieberg

doi:10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108632

Return on investment of the pathways to prevention project from the reduced probability of the onset of serious youth offending

Matthew Manning (Co-first Author)
, Gabriel T.W. Wong^* (Co-first Author)
, Ross Homel
, Jacqueline Allen
, Kate Frieberg

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Social and Behavioural Sciences

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

Abstract

This paper estimates the return on investment (ROI) of the Pathways to Prevention Project’s Communication Program. The program was an enriched preschool curriculum delivered over two years as part of a broader developmental crime prevention initiative with four-year-old children, their families, and local preschools in an economically disadvantaged urban Queensland community. Results show that for every dollar spent, the Communication Program generated an average return of 7.65 in savings (2024 Australian dollars) from avoided court-adjudicated youth offending. The Pathways to Prevention Project is the first Australian early-in-life crime prevention initiative to present scientifically persuasive evidence for effectiveness in reducing the probability of onset of serious youth offending, offering a counternarrative to prevailing expensive youth justice policies centered on child accountability and harsh punishments.

© 2025 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Original language	English
Article number	108632
Number of pages	10
Journal	Children and Youth Services Review
Volume	179
Online published	16 Oct 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108632
Publication status	Published - Dec 2025

Funding

The research described in this paper was supported by the John Barnes Foundation (Australia), the Criminology Research Grants Program (Grant Number CRG 26/19-20; Australia), and the Australian Research Council(Grant Numbers C0107593, LP0560771, DP0984675, DP140100921, LP170100480; Australia).

Research Keywords

Pathways to Prevention
Economic analysis
Multi-faceted early intervention program
Youth justice
Cost-benefit analysis
Communication program
Children’s communication skills

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10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108632

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title = "Return on investment of the pathways to prevention project from the reduced probability of the onset of serious youth offending",

abstract = "This paper estimates the return on investment (ROI) of the Pathways to Prevention Project{\textquoteright}s Communication Program. The program was an enriched preschool curriculum delivered over two years as part of a broader developmental crime prevention initiative with four-year-old children, their families, and local preschools in an economically disadvantaged urban Queensland community. Results show that for every dollar spent, the Communication Program generated an average return of 7.65 in savings (2024 Australian dollars) from avoided court-adjudicated youth offending. The Pathways to Prevention Project is the first Australian early-in-life crime prevention initiative to present scientifically persuasive evidence for effectiveness in reducing the probability of onset of serious youth offending, offering a counternarrative to prevailing expensive youth justice policies centered on child accountability and harsh punishments. {\textcopyright} 2025 Published by Elsevier Ltd.",

keywords = "Pathways to Prevention, Economic analysis, Multi-faceted early intervention program, Youth justice, Cost-benefit analysis, Communication program, Children{\textquoteright}s communication skills",

author = "Matthew Manning and Wong, \{Gabriel T.W.\} and Ross Homel and Jacqueline Allen and Kate Frieberg",

year = "2025",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108632",

language = "English",

volume = "179",

journal = "Children and Youth Services Review",

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Return on investment of the pathways to prevention project from the reduced probability of the onset of serious youth offending. / Manning , Matthew (Co-first Author); Wong, Gabriel T.W. (Co-first Author); Homel, Ross et al.
In: Children and Youth Services Review, Vol. 179, 108632, 12.2025.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

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AU - Manning , Matthew

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AU - Homel, Ross

AU - Allen, Jacqueline

AU - Frieberg, Kate

PY - 2025/12

Y1 - 2025/12

N2 - This paper estimates the return on investment (ROI) of the Pathways to Prevention Project’s Communication Program. The program was an enriched preschool curriculum delivered over two years as part of a broader developmental crime prevention initiative with four-year-old children, their families, and local preschools in an economically disadvantaged urban Queensland community. Results show that for every dollar spent, the Communication Program generated an average return of 7.65 in savings (2024 Australian dollars) from avoided court-adjudicated youth offending. The Pathways to Prevention Project is the first Australian early-in-life crime prevention initiative to present scientifically persuasive evidence for effectiveness in reducing the probability of onset of serious youth offending, offering a counternarrative to prevailing expensive youth justice policies centered on child accountability and harsh punishments. © 2025 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

AB - This paper estimates the return on investment (ROI) of the Pathways to Prevention Project’s Communication Program. The program was an enriched preschool curriculum delivered over two years as part of a broader developmental crime prevention initiative with four-year-old children, their families, and local preschools in an economically disadvantaged urban Queensland community. Results show that for every dollar spent, the Communication Program generated an average return of 7.65 in savings (2024 Australian dollars) from avoided court-adjudicated youth offending. The Pathways to Prevention Project is the first Australian early-in-life crime prevention initiative to present scientifically persuasive evidence for effectiveness in reducing the probability of onset of serious youth offending, offering a counternarrative to prevailing expensive youth justice policies centered on child accountability and harsh punishments. © 2025 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

KW - Pathways to Prevention

KW - Economic analysis

KW - Multi-faceted early intervention program

KW - Youth justice

KW - Cost-benefit analysis

KW - Communication program

KW - Children’s communication skills

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UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105019977963

U2 - 10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108632

DO - 10.1016/j.childyouth.2025.108632

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 0190-7409

VL - 179

JO - Children and Youth Services Review

JF - Children and Youth Services Review

M1 - 108632

ER -

Return on investment of the pathways to prevention project from the reduced probability of the onset of serious youth offending

Abstract

Funding

Research Keywords

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