Reliability (and fault tree) analysis using expert opinions

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

47 Scopus Citations
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Author(s)

  • Dennis V. Lindley
  • Nozer D. Singpurwalla

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)87-90
Journal / PublicationJournal of the American Statistical Association
Volume81
Issue number393
Publication statusPublished - Mar 1986
Externally publishedYes

Abstract

In this article we introduce a formal procedure for the use of expert opinions in reliability (and fault tree) analysis. We consider the case of multicomponent parallel redundant systems for which there could be a single expert or a group of experts giving us opinions about each component. Inherent in our approach are a procedure for reflecting our judgment of the experts’ expertise and our own opinions about the components’ life lengths. An important issue here is the induced dependencies between the components’ life lengths due to any common knowledge shared by the experts. Our final results are approximations that depend on our having small uncertainty about what the experts have to say. The approximations are easily computable, and they can be generalized to cover any coherent system. © 1986 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Research Area(s)

  • Artificial intelligence, Combination of expert opinions, Expert systems, Fault tree analysis, LaPlace’s method of approximation, Systems reliability analysis

Citation Format(s)

Reliability (and fault tree) analysis using expert opinions. / Lindley, Dennis V.; Singpurwalla, Nozer D.
In: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 81, No. 393, 03.1986, p. 87-90.

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review