TY - JOUR
T1 - Reliability (and fault tree) analysis using expert opinions
AU - Lindley, Dennis V.
AU - Singpurwalla, Nozer D.
PY - 1986/3
Y1 - 1986/3
N2 - In this article we introduce a formal procedure for the use of expert opinions in reliability (and fault tree) analysis. We consider the case of multicomponent parallel redundant systems for which there could be a single expert or a group of experts giving us opinions about each component. Inherent in our approach are a procedure for reflecting our judgment of the experts’ expertise and our own opinions about the components’ life lengths. An important issue here is the induced dependencies between the components’ life lengths due to any common knowledge shared by the experts. Our final results are approximations that depend on our having small uncertainty about what the experts have to say. The approximations are easily computable, and they can be generalized to cover any coherent system. © 1986 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
AB - In this article we introduce a formal procedure for the use of expert opinions in reliability (and fault tree) analysis. We consider the case of multicomponent parallel redundant systems for which there could be a single expert or a group of experts giving us opinions about each component. Inherent in our approach are a procedure for reflecting our judgment of the experts’ expertise and our own opinions about the components’ life lengths. An important issue here is the induced dependencies between the components’ life lengths due to any common knowledge shared by the experts. Our final results are approximations that depend on our having small uncertainty about what the experts have to say. The approximations are easily computable, and they can be generalized to cover any coherent system. © 1986 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
KW - Artificial intelligence
KW - Combination of expert opinions
KW - Expert systems
KW - Fault tree analysis
KW - LaPlace’s method of approximation
KW - Systems reliability analysis
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UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/pubmetrics.uri?eid=2-s2.0-0002473648&origin=recordpage
U2 - 10.1080/01621459.1986.10478241
DO - 10.1080/01621459.1986.10478241
M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal
SN - 0162-1459
VL - 81
SP - 87
EP - 90
JO - Journal of the American Statistical Association
JF - Journal of the American Statistical Association
IS - 393
ER -