Refining climate change threats to heritage

A changing climate places shifting risks on heritage. Future English climate can be difficult to interpret and the outcomes may be probabilistic and subtle. In spite of this it can be tempting to reduce our future to one that is warmer or wetter or windier. There is some truth to such a future, but particularly in the case of water-related variables the changes are likely to be complex. In terms of total rainfall and average relative humidity the English climate is likely to become drier. We have to think more in terms of the heritage climate; the particular variables likely to threaten heritage. Meteorological parameters affect heritage in different ways. Heavier rainfall is likely to affect drainage, while an increasing humidity range may be important for salt damage. Yet in the case of fungal attack on outdoor wood it might well be that temperature could be a more important variable than precipitation. This article calls for a careful consideration of the observed change in heritage damage and the climate factors to which this is attributed.