Real estate bubbles in China: A tale of two cities

Eddie Chi-Man Hui; Cong Liang; Ziyou Wang; Bo-Tong Song; Q. Gu

doi:10.1080/01446193.2012.714871

Real estate bubbles in China: A tale of two cities

Eddie Chi-Man Hui
, Cong Liang
, Ziyou Wang
, Bo-Tong Song
, Q. Gu

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

As housing markets have overheated recently in urban China, housing price bears substantial risk. The issue of housing price bubbles in these markets has become a popular and significant topic among consumers, policymakers and academia alike. In particular, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as the most important markets for revealing the condition of the housing market in the Pearl River Delta, have attracted much attention in the period of prosperity. As such, an investigation into the bubble issue in these two cities is conducted by using an improved model, the time-varying risk model. The empirical work reveals that explosive bubbles did periodically (2003 Q1 to 2006 Q2 and 2009 Q2 to 2010 Q1) have an impact on the two markets. For the rest of the period, housing markets in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are found to be significantly influenced by macro adjustments and various economic events. The implication of the research provides a reference for policymaking in addressing the issue of softening in China's real estate market. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	951-961
Journal	Construction Management and Economics
Volume	30
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2012.714871
Publication status	Published - Nov 2012
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publication details (e.g. title, author(s), publication statuses and dates) are captured on an “AS IS” and “AS AVAILABLE” basis at the time of record harvesting from the data source. Suggestions for further amendments or supplementary information can be sent to [email protected].

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Research Keywords

Housing price bubble
housing research
price to income ratio
state space model

Policy Impact

Cited in Policy Documents

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10.1080/01446193.2012.714871

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title = "Real estate bubbles in China: A tale of two cities",

abstract = "As housing markets have overheated recently in urban China, housing price bears substantial risk. The issue of housing price bubbles in these markets has become a popular and significant topic among consumers, policymakers and academia alike. In particular, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as the most important markets for revealing the condition of the housing market in the Pearl River Delta, have attracted much attention in the period of prosperity. As such, an investigation into the bubble issue in these two cities is conducted by using an improved model, the time-varying risk model. The empirical work reveals that explosive bubbles did periodically (2003 Q1 to 2006 Q2 and 2009 Q2 to 2010 Q1) have an impact on the two markets. For the rest of the period, housing markets in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are found to be significantly influenced by macro adjustments and various economic events. The implication of the research provides a reference for policymaking in addressing the issue of softening in China's real estate market. {\textcopyright} 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Real estate bubbles in China

T2 - A tale of two cities

AU - Hui, Eddie Chi-Man

AU - Liang, Cong

AU - Wang, Ziyou

AU - Song, Bo-Tong

AU - Gu, Q.

N1 - Publication details (e.g. title, author(s), publication statuses and dates) are captured on an “AS IS” and “AS AVAILABLE” basis at the time of record harvesting from the data source. Suggestions for further amendments or supplementary information can be sent to [email protected].

PY - 2012/11

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N2 - As housing markets have overheated recently in urban China, housing price bears substantial risk. The issue of housing price bubbles in these markets has become a popular and significant topic among consumers, policymakers and academia alike. In particular, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as the most important markets for revealing the condition of the housing market in the Pearl River Delta, have attracted much attention in the period of prosperity. As such, an investigation into the bubble issue in these two cities is conducted by using an improved model, the time-varying risk model. The empirical work reveals that explosive bubbles did periodically (2003 Q1 to 2006 Q2 and 2009 Q2 to 2010 Q1) have an impact on the two markets. For the rest of the period, housing markets in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are found to be significantly influenced by macro adjustments and various economic events. The implication of the research provides a reference for policymaking in addressing the issue of softening in China's real estate market. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

AB - As housing markets have overheated recently in urban China, housing price bears substantial risk. The issue of housing price bubbles in these markets has become a popular and significant topic among consumers, policymakers and academia alike. In particular, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as the most important markets for revealing the condition of the housing market in the Pearl River Delta, have attracted much attention in the period of prosperity. As such, an investigation into the bubble issue in these two cities is conducted by using an improved model, the time-varying risk model. The empirical work reveals that explosive bubbles did periodically (2003 Q1 to 2006 Q2 and 2009 Q2 to 2010 Q1) have an impact on the two markets. For the rest of the period, housing markets in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are found to be significantly influenced by macro adjustments and various economic events. The implication of the research provides a reference for policymaking in addressing the issue of softening in China's real estate market. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

KW - Housing price bubble

KW - housing research

KW - price to income ratio

KW - state space model

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DO - 10.1080/01446193.2012.714871

M3 - RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal

SN - 0144-6193

VL - 30

SP - 951

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JO - Construction Management and Economics

JF - Construction Management and Economics

IS - 11

ER -

Real estate bubbles in China: A tale of two cities

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Research Keywords

Policy Impact

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