Rainfall strength and area from landfalling tropical cyclones over the North Indian and western North Pacific oceans under increased CO2 conditions

Mincheol Moon; Kyung-Ja Ha; Dasol Kim; Chang-Hoi Ho; Doo-Sun R. Park; Jung-Eun Chu; Sun-Seon Lee; Johnny C.L. Chan

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2023.100581

Rainfall strength and area from landfalling tropical cyclones over the North Indian and western North Pacific oceans under increased CO₂ conditions

Mincheol Moon
, Kyung-Ja Ha^*
, Dasol Kim
, Chang-Hoi Ho
, Doo-Sun R. Park
, Jung-Eun Chu^*
, Sun-Seon Lee
, Johnny C.L. Chan

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Energy and Environment

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

113 Downloads (CityUHK Scholars)

Abstract

Climate change due to greenhouse gases has fueled more intense tropical cyclones (TCs) globally. However, the characteristics rainfall strength (RS) and rainfall area (RA) of TCs and their future changes in regional scales are not yet fully understood. Here, using ultra-high-resolution coupled model simulations, we investigate the dominant factors which control rainfall characteristics of landfalling TCs in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and western-North Pacific (WNP) and their future change in responses to doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. In the NIO, RS increases more than RA when CO₂ rises, but the WNP shows the opposite behavior. We demonstrate that RS is highly related to the lifetime maximum intensity, landfall intensity, and latent heat flux (LHFLX), while RA depends mainly on LHFLX, relative humidity at 600 hPa, and vertical wind shear over the WNP. Our results suggest the need to establish regional-scale adaptation strategies for future changes in landfalling TCs rainfall. © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Original language	English
Article number	100581
Journal	Weather and Climate Extremes
Volume	41
Online published	5 Jun 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100581
Publication status	Published - Sept 2023

Funding

This research was supported by the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) IBS-R028-D1 , the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (Grant No. 2020R1A2C2006860 ). Also, this work is financially supported by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as「Graduate School specialized in Climate Change」. The simulations were conducted on the IBS/ICCP supercomputer “Aleph,” 1.43-petaflop high-performance Cray XC50-LC Skylake computing system with 18,720 processor cores, 9.59-petabyte storage, and 43-petabyte tape archive space. Further information about the simulations can be found at https://ibsclimate.org/research/ultra-high-resolution-climate-simulation-project . We also acknowledge the support of KREONET. This research was supported by the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) IBS-R028-D1, the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (Grant No. 2020R1A2C2006860). Also, this work is financially supported by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as「Graduate School specialized in Climate Change」. The simulations were conducted on the IBS/ICCP supercomputer “Aleph,” 1.43-petaflop high-performance Cray XC50-LC Skylake computing system with 18,720 processor cores, 9.59-petabyte storage, and 43-petabyte tape archive space. Further information about the simulations can be found at https://ibsclimate.org/research/ultra-high-resolution-climate-simulation-project. We also acknowledge the support of KREONET.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Research Keywords

CESM high-Resolution modeling
Climate change
CO2 increase
Rainfall area
Rainfall strength
Tropical cyclone

Publisher's Copyright Statement

This full text is made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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title = "Rainfall strength and area from landfalling tropical cyclones over the North Indian and western North Pacific oceans under increased CO2 conditions",

abstract = "Climate change due to greenhouse gases has fueled more intense tropical cyclones (TCs) globally. However, the characteristics rainfall strength (RS) and rainfall area (RA) of TCs and their future changes in regional scales are not yet fully understood. Here, using ultra-high-resolution coupled model simulations, we investigate the dominant factors which control rainfall characteristics of landfalling TCs in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and western-North Pacific (WNP) and their future change in responses to doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In the NIO, RS increases more than RA when CO2 rises, but the WNP shows the opposite behavior. We demonstrate that RS is highly related to the lifetime maximum intensity, landfall intensity, and latent heat flux (LHFLX), while RA depends mainly on LHFLX, relative humidity at 600 hPa, and vertical wind shear over the WNP. Our results suggest the need to establish regional-scale adaptation strategies for future changes in landfalling TCs rainfall. {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.",

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author = "Mincheol Moon and Kyung-Ja Ha and Dasol Kim and Chang-Hoi Ho and Park, \{Doo-Sun R.\} and Jung-Eun Chu and Sun-Seon Lee and Chan, \{Johnny C.L.\}",

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T1 - Rainfall strength and area from landfalling tropical cyclones over the North Indian and western North Pacific oceans under increased CO2 conditions

AU - Moon, Mincheol

AU - Ha, Kyung-Ja

AU - Kim, Dasol

AU - Ho, Chang-Hoi

AU - Park, Doo-Sun R.

AU - Chu, Jung-Eun

AU - Lee, Sun-Seon

AU - Chan, Johnny C.L.

PY - 2023/9

Y1 - 2023/9

N2 - Climate change due to greenhouse gases has fueled more intense tropical cyclones (TCs) globally. However, the characteristics rainfall strength (RS) and rainfall area (RA) of TCs and their future changes in regional scales are not yet fully understood. Here, using ultra-high-resolution coupled model simulations, we investigate the dominant factors which control rainfall characteristics of landfalling TCs in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and western-North Pacific (WNP) and their future change in responses to doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In the NIO, RS increases more than RA when CO2 rises, but the WNP shows the opposite behavior. We demonstrate that RS is highly related to the lifetime maximum intensity, landfall intensity, and latent heat flux (LHFLX), while RA depends mainly on LHFLX, relative humidity at 600 hPa, and vertical wind shear over the WNP. Our results suggest the need to establish regional-scale adaptation strategies for future changes in landfalling TCs rainfall. © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

AB - Climate change due to greenhouse gases has fueled more intense tropical cyclones (TCs) globally. However, the characteristics rainfall strength (RS) and rainfall area (RA) of TCs and their future changes in regional scales are not yet fully understood. Here, using ultra-high-resolution coupled model simulations, we investigate the dominant factors which control rainfall characteristics of landfalling TCs in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and western-North Pacific (WNP) and their future change in responses to doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In the NIO, RS increases more than RA when CO2 rises, but the WNP shows the opposite behavior. We demonstrate that RS is highly related to the lifetime maximum intensity, landfall intensity, and latent heat flux (LHFLX), while RA depends mainly on LHFLX, relative humidity at 600 hPa, and vertical wind shear over the WNP. Our results suggest the need to establish regional-scale adaptation strategies for future changes in landfalling TCs rainfall. © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

KW - CESM high-Resolution modeling

KW - Climate change

KW - CO2 increase

KW - Rainfall area

KW - Rainfall strength

KW - Tropical cyclone

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