Estimating economic effects of political movements in China

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalNot applicablepeer-review

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)192-208
Journal / PublicationJournal of Comparative Economics
Volume23
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Oct 1996
Externally publishedYes

Abstract

To measure the economic effects of political movements in China a simple econometric model is constructed. Investment is determined by a central planner maximizing a multiperiod objective function. Political events are modeled by exogenous changes in the shocks to productivity and to investment which affect the time paths of major economic variables. Effects of the events are measured by comparing the time paths generated by the model with and without the changes in the shocks. Without the Great Leap output and consumption per capita would have been 2.0 times as great in 1993, without the Cultural Revolution, 1.2 times as great. J. Comp. Econom., October 1996, 23(2), pp. 192-208. Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong; and Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544. © 1996 Academic Press, Inc.

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