结合中国中长期规划研究成果和国内外学术文献,充分考虑中国现阶段以工业为主的产业结构、以煤为主的能源结构, 以及新技术研发和投入使用周期,利用中国高空间分辨率排放网格数据库(China high resolution emission gridded database,CHRED),自上而下(基于中国中长期排放和强度目标并参考IPCC-SSPs排放情景)和自下而上(基于CHRED 50 km网格分部门排放,利用空间公平趋同模型),建立中国碳中和目标下的2020—2060年二氧化碳排放路径(CAEP-CP 1.1)。CAEP-CP 1.1表明,中国2027年左右达峰,二氧化碳排放峰值为106亿t,达峰后经历5～7年平台期,2030年二氧化碳排放量为105亿t。CAEP-CP 1.1空间格局(50 km)在2030年和IPCC排放情景基本一致,但2060年差异较为显著,主要由于CAEP-CP 1.1是基于中国2060年碳中和的目标,相比IPCC情景减排力度更强。2060年排放格局下,中国基本实现超低排放,绝大部分区域(50 km×50 km)排放量都低于100万t,而在IPCC的情境下,中国2060年仍有不少区域排放量超过1 000万t。CAEP-CP 1.1空间化排放数据可与IPCC-SSPs(0.5°网格)比对和分析,路径数据可实现部门、区域对标分析和横纵向比较,国家-区域-部门-网格数据联动和双向反馈,可追溯性强(可分析每个50 km空间网格分部门排放和相关参数),便于根据实际发展、国家重大决策变化和认知提升等动态调整和迭代升级路径数据,有利于决策者在国家-区域-部门层面仿真和推演不同政策措施下的排放情景,为二氧化碳排放管控科学化、精准化提供重要支撑。

This research attempts to establish a China 2020-2060 CO₂ emission pathway (CAEP-CP 1. 1) under the carbon neutral target (2060), using top-down (China’s medium-and long-term CO₂ emission and intensity targets and IPCC-SSPs emission pathways) and bottom-up (based on CHRED 50 km gridded emissions, using Spatial-Equity based Emission Convergence Model) methods. Built on China High Resolution Emission Gridded Database (CHRED), the CAEP-CP 1. 1 pathway combines China’s medium-and long-term planning research and academic literature and fully considers China’s current industrial structure, coal-based energy structure, etc., as well as new technology research and development and operational cycles. The pathway shows that China will reach its emission peak in around 2027, with peak CO₂ emissions of 10. 6 billion tons. After reaching the peak, it will experience a plateau period of 5-7 years. In 2030, China’s CO₂ emissions will be 10. 5 billion tons. The spatial pattern of CAEP-CP 1. 1 (50 km) in 2030 is broadly consistent with the IPCC emission scenario, but the differences in 2060 are significant. This is mainly because CAEP-CP 1. 1 is based on China’s 2060 carbon neutral target, which is much stricter than that of IPCC. Under the emission pattern of 2060,China will basically achieve ultra-low emissions across the country, with emissions in most regions (50 km × 50 km) below 1 million tons. In the context of IPCC, China will still have many regions with the emission level above 10 million tons in 2060. CAEP-CP 1. 1 shows that the established spatial CO₂ emission pathway will support benchmarking analysis between sectors and regions, and two-way feedbacks through multi-level country-region-department-grid data. CAEP-CP 1. 1 is also traceable to CO₂ emissions and related parameters of each 50 km spatial grid. This research is significant for academic researchers and policy makers to (1) dynamically adjust and iteratively upgrade CO₂ emission scenarios based on specific conditions; (2) simulate and derive CO₂ emission scenarios under different policies and strategies at different levels (national, provincial, and local) and provide support for high-resolution and precise emission control and management.