Braking Force Model on Virus Transmission to Evaluate Interventions Including the Administration of COVID-19 Vaccines — Worldwide, 2019–2021
Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62) › 21_Publication in refereed journal › peer-review
Author(s)
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Detail(s)
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 869-877 |
| Journal / Publication | China CDC Weekly |
| Volume | 3 |
| Issue number | 41 |
| Online published | 9 Sep 2021 |
| Publication status | Published - 8 Oct 2021 |
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| DOI | DOI |
|---|---|
| Attachment(s) | Documents
Publisher's Copyright Statement
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| Link to Scopus | https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85130378988&origin=recordpage |
| Permanent Link | https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/publications/publication(c039c74d-b487-4ae6-952c-3c9d323f79a2).html |
Abstract
Introduction: Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines on controlling the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is key for each government to optimize the anti-contagion policy according to their situation.
Methods: We proposed the Braking Force Model on Virus Transmission to evaluate the validity and efficiency of NPIs and vaccines. This model classified the NPIs and the administration of vaccines at different effectiveness levels and forecasted the duration required to control the pandemic, providing an indication of the future trends of the pandemic wave.
Results: This model was applied to study the effectiveness of the most commonly used NPIs according to the historic pandemic waves in different countries and regions. It was found that when facing an outbreak, only strict lockdown would give efficient control of the pandemic; the other NPIs were insufficient to promptly and effectively reduce virus transmission. Meanwhile, our results showed that NPIs would likely only slow down the pandemic’s progression and maintain a low transmission level but fail to eradicate the disease. Only vaccination would likely have had a better chance of success in ending the pandemic.
Discussion: Based on the Braking Force Model, a pandemic control strategy framework has been devised for policymakers to determine the commencement and duration of appropriate interventions, with the aim of obtaining a balance between public health risk management and economic recovery.
Methods: We proposed the Braking Force Model on Virus Transmission to evaluate the validity and efficiency of NPIs and vaccines. This model classified the NPIs and the administration of vaccines at different effectiveness levels and forecasted the duration required to control the pandemic, providing an indication of the future trends of the pandemic wave.
Results: This model was applied to study the effectiveness of the most commonly used NPIs according to the historic pandemic waves in different countries and regions. It was found that when facing an outbreak, only strict lockdown would give efficient control of the pandemic; the other NPIs were insufficient to promptly and effectively reduce virus transmission. Meanwhile, our results showed that NPIs would likely only slow down the pandemic’s progression and maintain a low transmission level but fail to eradicate the disease. Only vaccination would likely have had a better chance of success in ending the pandemic.
Discussion: Based on the Braking Force Model, a pandemic control strategy framework has been devised for policymakers to determine the commencement and duration of appropriate interventions, with the aim of obtaining a balance between public health risk management and economic recovery.
Research Area(s)
Citation Format(s)
Braking Force Model on Virus Transmission to Evaluate Interventions Including the Administration of COVID-19 Vaccines — Worldwide, 2019–2021. / Zhong, Shengyi; Chen, Zhe; Wang, Yun et al.
In: China CDC Weekly, Vol. 3, No. 41, 08.10.2021, p. 869-877.Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62) › 21_Publication in refereed journal › peer-review
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