Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain : the impact of forecasting, lead times, and information

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalNot applicablepeer-review

1145 Scopus Citations
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Author(s)

  • Frank Chen
  • Zvi Drezner
  • Jennifer K. Ryan
  • David Simchi-Levi

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)436-443
Journal / PublicationManagement Science
Volume46
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2000
Externally publishedYes

Abstract

An important observation in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two-stage supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. Our model includes two of the factors commonly assumed to cause the bullwhip effect: demand forecasting and order lead times. We extend these results to multiple-stage supply chains with and without centralized customer demand information and demonstrate that the bullwhip effect can be reduced, but not completely eliminated, by centralizing demand information.

Citation Format(s)

Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain : the impact of forecasting, lead times, and information. / Chen, Frank; Drezner, Zvi; Ryan, Jennifer K.; Simchi-Levi, David.

In: Management Science, Vol. 46, No. 3, 03.2000, p. 436-443.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalNot applicablepeer-review