为构建不确定环境下的可持续供应商选择模型,依据可持续供应链管理的三重底线原则,从社会绩效、环境绩效与经济绩效3方面构建可持续供应商评估指标体系。考虑可能性分布—犹豫模糊语言集(PD-HFLTS)在刻画不确定信息的优势,以及群决策理论在提升选择结果可信度与可靠性的优势,提出基于PD-HFLTS与群决策理论的层次分析法确定评估指标权重,进而提出基于PD-HFLTS与群决策理论的三阶段决策方法,以降低可持续供应商选择的复杂度。此外,针对群决策中专家权重确定问题,提出综合考虑专家先验信息、所给评估信息模糊程度和群体意见一致性水平的组合赋权法;针对群决策中的意见冲突问题,提出基于PD-HFLTS的群体意见一致性检验与调整方法。最后,以某汽车制造企业选择可持续零部件供应商为例,验证了本模型的科学性与有效性。

Sustainable supplier selection plays a vital role in the sustainable supply chain. According to the triple bottom line principle of sustainable supply chain management, the assessment criteria system was constructed from the following three aspects: social performance, environmental performance and economic performance. By considering the advantages of Possibility Distribution-Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set (PD-HFLTS) in characterizing the uncertain assessment information and the group decision-making theory in improving the credibility and reliability of selection result, an improved Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method based on PD-HFLTS and group decision-making theory was put forward to determine the weight of assessment criteria, and then a three-phase group decision making method based on PD-HFLTS was raised to reduce the complexity of sustainable supplier selection. Furthermore, a new combination weighting method which considered the prior information of experts, the fuzzy degree of assessment information and the group consensus degree given by experts was presented to determine the weights of experts; the group opinion consensus detecting and adjustment algorithm was proposed to reducing the group opinion conflict level. The feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method was illustrated by the example of the sustainable component supplier's selection of an automobile manufacturing enterprise.