Commercial audience retention of television programs : measurement and prediction

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

2 Scopus Citations
View graph of relations


Related Research Unit(s)


Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)435-461
Journal / PublicationInternational Journal of Advertising
Issue number3
Online published4 Apr 2021
Publication statusPublished - 2022


Program audience ratings are typically used as a reference in placing and pricing television advertisements. However, the discrepancy in audience size between a program and its commercials impairs the reliability of the program ratings. This study proposes a new metric, commercial audience retention (CAR), to measure a program’s capability of retaining its audience when a commercial break occurs and develops a model to predict a program’s CAR. The CAR metric and prediction model are tested and validated using a sufficient dataset with consumer TV viewing and program broadcast records for 1 year. We find that some factors that influence program ratings or commercial avoidance have no significant effect or have different effects on CAR. Our empirical results may be of value for advertisers and TV stations in purchasing and pricing of commercial airtime. A real-world application of the CAR metric for an advertising company is offered as an illustration.

Research Area(s)

  • Commercial audience retention, commercial avoidance, media planning, regression model