EVALUATING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

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Author(s)

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)724-732
Journal / PublicationIssues in Information Systems
Volume11
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Abstract

Estimating and forecasting are difficult tasks. This is true whether the activity requires the determination of uncertain future event outcomes, or whether the estimation effort is complex in itself and based on insufficient information. Consequently, such tasks are frequently assigned to experts. Surprisingly, recent research suggests that collectives of non-experts can outperform individual experts, as long as certain conditions are met. The resulting capability has been described as collective intelligence or “wisdom of crowds”. Our research explores this collective intelligence, for real and simulated crowds. An empirical test demonstrates that even a relatively small crowd of 30 subjects can demonstrate expert-like performance. A further investigation through simulation shows that the performance of a collective predictably compares to that of an expert, with the expert outperforming small crowds but being outperformed by large collectives. The relationship between performance and log of collective size follows a linear function.

Research Area(s)

  • Collective Intelligence, Wisdom of Crowds, Simulation, Diversity, Expertise

Bibliographic Note

Full text of this publication does not contain sufficient affiliation information. With consent from the author(s) concerned, the Research Unit(s) information for this record is based on the existing academic department affiliation of the author(s).

Citation Format(s)

EVALUATING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS. / Wagner, Christian; Vinaimont, Tom.

In: Issues in Information Systems, Vol. 11, No. 1, 2010, p. 724-732.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journalpeer-review