The risk of rinderpest re-introduction in post-eradication era

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review

18 Scopus Citations
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Author(s)

  • Guillaume Fournié
  • Bryony Anne Jones
  • Wendy Beauvais
  • Juan Lubroth
  • Felix Njeumi
  • Angus Cameron

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)175-184
Journal / PublicationPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume113
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2014
Externally publishedYes

Abstract

In 2011, ten years after the last reported outbreak, the eradication of rinderpest was declared. However, as rinderpest virus stocks still exist, there remains a risk of rinderpest re-introduction.A semi-quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess this risk, which was defined as the probability of at least one host becoming infected and infectious outside a laboratory anywhere in the world within a one-year period. Pathways leading to rinderpest re-introduction were: deliberate or accidental use of virus in laboratories, deliberate or accidental use of vaccines, host exposure to an environmental source of virus, and use of virus for anti-animal biological warfare. The probability of each pathway step occurring was estimated through expert opinion elicitation.The risk estimate was associated with a high degree of uncertainty. It was estimated to range from negligible to high, with the median being very low. The accidental use of laboratory virus stocks was the highest risk pathway. Reducing the number of virus stocks and restricting their use, as well as upgrading the laboratories to a higher biosafety level, would effectively decrease the maximum and median risks. Likewise, ensuring that remaining vaccine stocks are not used and are instead destroyed or relocated to a limited number of regional repositories would also have a major effect on these estimates. However, these measures are unlikely to eliminate the risk of rinderpest re-introduction so that maintaining response preparedness is essential. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Research Area(s)

  • Eradication, Expert opinion, Re-introduction, Rinderpest, Risk assessment, Semi-quantitative model

Citation Format(s)

The risk of rinderpest re-introduction in post-eradication era. / Fournié, Guillaume; Jones, Bryony Anne; Beauvais, Wendy et al.
In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 113, No. 2, 01.02.2014, p. 175-184.

Research output: Journal Publications and ReviewsRGC 21 - Publication in refereed journalpeer-review