Probabilistic ecological risk assessment for three chlorophenols in surface waters of China

Individual and combined assessment of risks of adverse effects to aquatic ecosystems of three chlorophenols (CPs), including 2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP), 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (2,4,6-TCP) and pentachlorophenol (PCP), were conducted. A probabilistic approach based on the concentrations of CPs in surface waters of China was used to determine the likelihood of adverse effects. The potential risk of CPs in surface waters of China was determined to be of concern, especially PCP and mixtures of CPs. The risks of adverse effects were examined as the joint probabilities of exposure and response. The joint probability for PCP was 0.271 in the worst case and 0.111 in the median case, respectively. Based on the cumulative probability, 5% of aquatic organisms included in the assessment would be affected 21.36% of the time in the worst case and 5.99% of the time in median case, respectively. For the mixtures of CPs, the joint probability were 0.171 in the worst case and 0.503 in median case, respectively and 5% of species would be affected 49.83% of the time for the worst case and 12.72% in the median case, respectively. Risks of effects of the individual CPs, 2,4-DCP and 2,4,6-TCP were deemed to be acceptable with a overlapping probability of <0.1 with 5% of species being affected less than 4% of the time. © 2012 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences.